Q. What is your outlook on LME aluminium prices? Will Chinese smelters evaluate the possibilities of a ramp-up in the near term? Can domestic producers hope to stay profitable at the current price point?
Indian bauxite mining, alumina refining, and smelting are one of the lowest-cost operations in the world. The assets built by the primary aluminium players are relatively new and extremely low cost given the natural resource wealth of India. The LME fall has certainly impacted the aluminium smelters all over the world and is not just limited to the Indian producers. However, it can be said that the inherent demand for aluminium is here to stay. The markets will gradually pick up, demand will rise again and the aluminium prices on the LME will revive. Furthermore, if the LME ensures to stay low for a certain time interval, the international high-cost smelting capacity will shrink, eventually leading to an upward movement in the LME. China is the world's largest producer of primary and downstream aluminium, which is known to account for about 56 per cent of the international output last year, and the pandemic has had a huge ramification on their markets. China has maintained an export duty on primary aluminium and a subsidy on exports of downstream aluminium. Hence, the fear is that Chinese aluminium smelters might continue to keep churning out metal, thereby incentivising Chinese downstream aluminium players to export cheaper downstream aluminium products into global markets. While the contracting global aluminium prices have hurt Indian (and global) aluminium manufacturers in the short term, an increase in import duty protection for aluminium extruded and flat-rolled products will lead to a resurgence in domestic primary aluminium demand, while also protecting from any possible dumping of Chinese extruded and rolled products.