A billion and counting, but the pace of Covid vaccination is slowing down

First dose administration has dropped in some states despite a sizeable population yet to be vaccinated

On September 17, India, in mission mode, administered 22 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccine. The country until then was administering 8 million daily average doses; the average thereafter was just under 10 million. The number of doses administered daily has been decreasing. On October 21, as India became the first nation to administer 1 billion doses, the average daily vaccinations were just 4 million.

While it took India 12 days to go from 700 million to 800 million doses, it took 15 days to cover another 100 million; it has taken 20 days to go from 900 million to 1 billion.

Administering 1 billion doses is indeed commendable. Sixteen of 36 states/Union Territories have administered the first dose to over 90 per cent of their eligible population. Still, a Business Standard analysis shows that some form of hesitancy or administrative laxity may be creeping in.

Despite a large proportion of the population yet to be vaccinated, the pace of first dose administration is slowing down.

For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, first doses as a proportion of total doses administered had fallen to 42 per cent on October 19. Until a fortnight ago, 57 per cent of total daily doses administered in the state were first doses. The state still has 40 per cent of the popultion that remains to be vaccinated. Jharkhand is in a similar situation. Even though 42 per cent of the population remains to be vaccinated, first doses as a proportion of total doses administered on October 19 was just 45 per cent. The situation in the Northeast was worse, as first dose administration was just 10 per cent in Manipur and 14 per cent in Nagaland.

West Bengal, in contrast, stands at the other end of the spectrum. A third of the population is yet to be vaccinated, but first dose administration in the state stood at 81 per cent on October 19.

Further data analysis reveals that the first doses administered fell by half for India in the last fortnight. In contrast, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Bihar and Telangana--states with over a quarter of the unvaccinated population--witnessed over a two-thirds decline in daily first dose administration. West Bengal, Punjab and Meghalaya were the only states where vaccination increased compared to last fortnight.

States where over 30 per cent of the population is unvaccinated account for 43.7 per cent of the country’s adult population. Although experts agree that the entire adult population need not be covered, low vaccination levels or coverage with just a single dose can trigger another wave of infections.

Also, a delay in vaccination further pushes out the date for vaccinating the entire country. At the current pace, some states will finish their vaccination schedules only in 2023.