ABP-Neilsen survey: If polls held today, NDA may erase UPA

If polls were held today, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) will get a mere 136 Lok Sabha seats, according to a survey done by ABP News-Nielsen. The main opposition, National Democratic Alliance, is likely to get 206 seats, while others parties will get 167 seats.

Neither the UPA nor the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA will get the magic number 272 in the general elections if they were to take place today. Left parties together will get 34 seats. The NDA may try to form the government, but will need 66 more seats for that.

Zonal performance
The UPA is seen as winning 33 seats in the east and 36 in the north in comparison with NDA's 49 and 67, respectively. In the south, the UPA is likely to get 36 seats against the NDA's 10. The major players in the southern states are the regional parties with 75 seats.

BJP leader Narendra Modi's effect is visible in western states, the survey says. With 80 seats, the NDA is likely to lead in the region. Congress could win 36 seats.

Vote share
The UPA will garner 26 per cent of votes, while the NDA will get 27 per cent. Other parties will be the most voted parties in the country. Forty-one per cent votes are spread among other parties, while the Left parties will get a meager six per cent votes.

Overall, 31 per cent of those interviewed by the survey intend to vote for the BJP, whereas 20 per cent are likely to vote for the Congress. Seventy-four per cent of those who voted for the Congress during 2009 Lok Sabha elections still intend to vote for the party if the Lok sabha elections are held now, while 26 per cent are moving away, of which nine per cent intend to vote for BJP. Ninety per cent of those who voted for the BJP will continue to vote for it while two per cent will move away from the BJP to the Congress, the survey found.