As infections rise, India's states fall behind in testing for Covid-19

States relying on a method that is quick to detect infections but may not be reliable always.

As Covid-19 cases rise in India, the government should test more people and isolate those infected. Many states though have dialed down testing as infections rise.

Average daily tests in India have increased since April. The country averaged 1.72 million tests over the previous week, whereas it tested just 1.18 million samples a month ago on April 10. The share of some of the most infected states in daily tests has declined though.

In India, average daily tests have increased since the last month. The country has averaged 1.82 million tests over the previous week, whereas it tested just 1.13 million samples a month ago on April 12. But the share of some of the most infected states in daily tests has declined.

The fall is more drastic for Maharashtra and Delhi. While Maharashtra was averaging over 270,000 tests between April 26 and May 4, in the last week, its daily average tests have come down to 249,058. Gujarat has reduced testing from 178,175 to 137,786. Similarly, in Delhi, there has been a consistent decline in testing. While the daily average of tests in Delhi had touched 100,000 in the second week of April, testing in the national capital has reduced by 27 per cent. Daily tests on May 12 averaged 72,901 .

In Delhi, there has been a consistent decline in testing. Daily average tests here had touched 100,000 in the second week of April, but has since then reduced by 27 per cent. Daily tests on May 10 averaged 72,786.

It is not surprising that the share of these states in national tests has declined. On April 12, Delhi accounted for 7.4 per cent of the daily average tests conducted across the country; today, its share is just 4 per cent. Maharashtra, which had the highest share in national testing, has witnessed its proportion fall to 13.7 per cent compared to 17.9 per cent a month ago.

Infections in Maharashtra have come down from a high of 65,447 to 51,004. Cases in Delhi have declined from from 25,255 to 18,374. How much is due to lower testing cannot be ascertained, but given that positivity rates have marginally changed, testing certainly plays a role in falling infections.

Another problem is the reliance on rapid antigen tests (RAT). Such tests are quicker and help in detecting infection clusters and contact tracing but their accuracy is suspect. So, states with a rising share of RAT cases may not even reflect the picture on the ground.

The share of RAT tests in the country’s testing has increased. A BS analysis shows that RAT had a 40 per cent share in daily tests a month ago and has risen to 46 per cent.

The increase in testing may be on the back of RAT. Still, some states have performed well in terms of ramping up their testing capacity. Andhra Pradesh has tripled the number of daily tests in the last month, and its share in daily national tests has increased from 3 per cent to 5.5 per cent.. Similarly, Kerala’s share has gone up from 4.6 per cent to 7.9 per cent, as testing in the state has increased from a daily average of 56,000 to 139,000.

Karnataka did ramp up its testing, but it has declined over the last month. Uttar Pradesh (UP) too ramped up its testing until last week, but it has since started dropping. But UP’s share in national tests has been decreasing, so the state has not kept the desired pace. On the other hand, Tamil Nadu has nearly doubled its testing capacity, and almost all of it is based on RT-PCR tests.