Monsoon might hit Kerala in 48 hours: IMD

Agriculture ministry readying plan to disburse short-duration seeds

The Union agriculture ministry met on Thursday with representatives of leading seed companies to ensure adequate supply of short-duration varieties in case the rains are below par.

This comes a few days after India Meteorological Department (IMD) lowered its forecast for the southwest monsoon to 88 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) from the earlier forecast of 93 per cent, triggering concern of drought.

Officials said the companies were asked to get information on seed stock in states and be prepared to supply short-duration varieties if a poor monsoon led to re-sowing.

IMD, meanwhile, said there had been an increase in rainfall activity in Kerala and the monsoon could hit the state anytime in the next 48 hours. The onset here marks the official onset of the country's rainy season. The normal date is June 1. IMD initially said this would happen on May 30 but later revised it to June 5, blaming "sluggish" pace.

Private forecasting agency Skymet concurred with the latest IMD forecast. "As we move ahead, more parts of Kerala are likely to be bathed by good pre-monsoon rain, ushering in the monsoon in India," it said.

IMD declares onset of monsoon if 60 per cent of the available 14 stations -Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangaluru - report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for consecutive days, coupled with wind pattern and speed.

Agriculture, which employs about 60 per cent of the country's population, is heavily dependent on the monsoon, as only 40 per cent of the cultivable area is under irrigation.

Last year, the country had received 12 per cent less of rains, which hit production of grain, cotton and oilseeds. Due to a poorer monsoon, agricultural growth was 0.2 per cent in 2014-15.

In April last year, IMD made its initial forecast of 95 per cent of the LPA, revised to 93 per cent in June.