Monsoon to hit Kerala coast on May 30: IMD

The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 4 days

The southwest monsoon, lifeline for tens of millions of farmers across the country, is expected to hit the Kerala coast on May 30, two days before the usual scheduled arrival, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. The forecast is with a model error of plus/minus four days. The southwest monsoon finally covers the entire country by July 15-20. It starts retreating from September.

Last year, it arrived almost five days after the normal date. Overall, the rains were below normal, at 88 per cent of the ‘long period average’ (LPA), adversely impacting 30 per cent of the country.

LPA is the average yearly rain the country received from 1951 to 2000, about 89 cm. “During the past few days, enhanced convection and increased rainfall activity has been observed over the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. As such, conditions are becoming favourable for advance of the southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea and adjoining sea areas during the next three to four days,” said IMD.

The department had in its first official forecast said the monsoon this year was expected to be below normal, at 93 per cent of the LPA. The forecast was with a model error of plus or minus five per cent. It said the northern and central parts of India might bear the brunt of below-normal showers.

However, private weather forecasting agency Skymet had said last month the monsoon would hit the Kerala coast around May 27 and was going to be strong. Its prediction was for rain at 102 per cent of the LPA (with a plus or minus five per cent error margin). The southwest monsoon provides a little over 70 per cent of India's annual precipitation and is important for not only a good kharif harvest, but the subsequent rabi crop, too, as it recharges the soil and the water reservoirs.