Pollsters to draw up exit poll regulations

Guidelines to cover media too; the move comes after the Bihar debacle

Some of the country's top polling agencies are formalising an arrangement that will see them abide by guidelines and put dos and don'ts in place for the media industry when using surveys.

The move comes after these agencies were criticised for inaccurate exit polls in the run-up to the verdict of the Bihar elections on Sunday. The agencies getting together to frame guidelines include Nielsen, IPSOS, Cicero, C-Four, CSDS-Lokniti and CVoter.

Channels typically tend to analyse data given by these agencies. If the verdict turns out to be wrong, the blame falls on the pollster concerned. The proposed dos and don'ts would cover this loophole and also talk about the use of data and disclaimers, among others.

Speaking to Business Standard, Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of CVoter, said there was a need to address issues in one voice, as pollsters would generally be held responsible if survey verdicts did not match the final outcome. "Our surveys generally stop with vote-share projections. Seat-share projections are not part of survey science, which is never communicated to the viewing public. This tendency to blame us if exit polls turn out to be inaccurate is not right. There is need for awareness among all stakeholders," Deshmukh said.

The alliance is expected to press for a declaration from broadcasters when using surveys of member agencies to ensure there is accountability on all sides. The alliance is also expected to seek greater cooperation from member agencies to be open to peer reviews and scrutiny on methodology and sampling techniques, to ensure there is greater transparency on these issues, Deshmukh said.

This need for transparency and accountability especially gathered steam as only one agency, Axis Ad Print Media, had called the Bihar elections accurately. Today's Chanakya, the agency that had called the 2014 general elections accurately, had said a computer template error caused a mix-up, resulting in the results getting interchanged.

Television channel executives have privately called Today's Chanakya's explanation as flimsy. This excuse cannot cover up the disparity seen in its exit poll results, which favoured the National Democratic Alliance, and the final verdict, they said. Both Today's Chanakya and Axis are not part of the pollsters' alliance.

A veteran psephologist and former member of the Aam Aadmi Party, Yogendra Yadav, had said in a conversation with Business Standard earlier there was a need for expectations from opinion polls to be toned down by all stakeholders. "One must know clearly what goes into exit polls. There must also be a dispute redressal mechanism in case there are inaccuracies in a poll and, last but not the least, more R&D must go into predicting polls," he had added. COURSE CORRECTION

Some of the top polling agencies have agreed to get together and frame guidelines
Some big names in the union

• Nielsen
• IPSOS
• Cicero
• C-Four
• CSDS-Lokniti
• CVoter

Likely guidelines

• Declaration from broadcasters when using surveys of member-agencies
• Accountability on all sides
• Greater cooperation from member-agencies to be open to peer reviews and scrutiny
• Greater transparency on methodology