Seven-day average Covid-19 vaccinations at half of June 21 record

The number of daily Covid-19 vaccinations in India have fallen more than 50 per cent from the June 21 peak. From the peak of 8.7 million vaccine jabs given in a day on June 21, the daily vaccination rate has dropped to just over 4 million doses on Monday.

A Business Standard analysis showed that some of the populous states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka that had accounted for over 40 percent of June 21st’s record-setting 8.7 million vaccinations, have seen sharp decline in daily vaccinations in the days forward. The seven-day moving average number of vaccinations in Madhya Pradesh was 85 percent lower than its June peak. Similarly, Karnataka reported a 75 percent dip and Uttar Pradesh a 62 percent dip.

The analysis also looked at the ten most populous states. The seven-day moving average vaccinations as of July 5, the latest data available on tracker Covid19india.org, show a decline of 44 per cent or more from their June peak. These states account for more than 74 per cent of India’s total population (see chart).  

Uttar Pradesh (UP) vaccinated over 900,000 people at the peak rate in June. The state has set a target of administering more than a million doses daily. It administered over 865,000 doses on 5th July. But the seven-day moving average leading up to that date shows a vaccination rate of a little over 355,000.

 “There are some supply issues, but the state has been performing relatively well in the ongoing vaccination drive. We also expect the situation to improve from July 15 onwards with supplies to the state getting augmented,” UP State Immunisation Officer Ajay Ghai told Business Standard.

“We have successfully achieved an average daily dose count of 8-9 lakh last month, and the target of a million jabs a day is not difficult if we have adequate supply of vaccines,” he noted.

Madhya Pradesh (MP), on the other hand, is a curious case. Data from the website Covid19india.org showed that in the days before June 21, the state’s daily vaccination rates had dropped significantly. On June 18, MP had vaccinated only 18,756 people which picked up on June 19 to 38,554 people, and dipped suddenly on June 20 (also a Sunday) to just 1863 doses given. On June 21, this number suddenly climbed to 16,96,081 doses. A Madhya Pradesh official had earlier told Business Standard that this could be because the state does not vaccinate equally on all days. An earlier analysis had shown a dip in vaccinations even after adjusting for the day of the week.  Some efforts on mobilisation leading up to 21st June may also have impacted vaccination rates on those days, he had added.  

Larger states have also built up capacities to vaccinate. Rajasthan, for example, has the capacity to inoculate 1.5 million people daily. State health Minister Raghu Sharma told Business Standard that last week they received 290,000 vaccine doses and that too in tranches – 200,000 and then 90,000. He claimed that as against a requirement of 7.5 million doses for giving shots to those who are due for their second doses this month, the state has been allotted 6.5 million doses (both Central government supply and private sector) for the month of July.

Shortage and staggered supplies seem to be playing dampener against ensuring consistent vaccination rates. Officials in Maharashtra said that they would want supplies to be regular and once for the whole week. This would help the authorities plan the drive better.

The Union Health Ministry on Monday said that over 20 million Covid-19 vaccines doses are lying unutilised across several states, union territories and private hospitals.

(With Inputs from Virendra Singh Rawat in Lucknow)