Skymet raises monsoon forecast to 109% of long period average

Private forecasting agency Skymet on Tuesday raised India's monsoon forecast to 109% of the long period average from 105% on the back of a waning El Nino. The revised forecast has an error margin of +/- 4%. 

“India's June monsoon rainfall is seen at 87% of average, while for July it is seen at 108%. August monsoon rain is seen at 113%, and for September it is at 123%,” Skymet said. 

Rainfall within 96-104% of the LPA is considered normal and anything above as 'above normal'. LPA is 889 mm, the average rain the country got in the 50 years from 1951.

The agency also said that conditions are favourable for timely monsoon in Kerala. 

“The El Niño is tapering off and it will collapse after the onset of Monsoon. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on the Monsoon performance," said Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet. There are more chances of getting into La-Niña in the later part of this year, Skymet added in a statement. 

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) earlier this month said the onset of southwest monsoon over the Kerala coast this year could be delayed by six days and that the rains would arrive around June 7. The forecast is with a model error of plus-minus four days. The normal onset date of the south-west monsoon is June 1, which marks the start of its four-month journey over the Indian sub-continent.

India is currently in the throes of a debilitating drought, the second in as many years, that has wreaked havoc on the rural economy. Agriculture, which remains the mainstay of more than half of India's population, has been particularly badly hit, given its outsize dependence on the monsoon because of a lack of proper irrigation facilities. 

The drought has gripped about 10 states and impacted roughly 330 million people.

According to Skymet, the total area under kharif food grains is expected to increase in 2016 by 15-20% over last year, with kharif production expected to be around 129-130 million tonnes. 

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met individually with chief ministers of states that are facing the brunt of the drought to discuss with them ways that the Centre could help in alleviating some of the stress.