After Bihar and UP, UPA breaking up in Tamil Nadu too

After collapsing in two big states of North India — Bihar and Uttar Pradesh — the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is on the verge of splitting in Tamil Nadu. While Lalu Prasad of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) today ruled out any re-negotiation in Bihar, defying pressure from various quarters, Left sources indicated that the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) was set to quit the UPA and join hands with AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

This effectively means that on around 160 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress and its key allies will fight as a fragmented force against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and the Third Front. Uttar Pradesh has 80 Lok Sabha seats. Tamil Nadu (along with Puducherry) and Bihar have 40 seats each. If we count the 14 seats of Jharkhand, where the Congress has struck a deal with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the number goes up to 174 — more than 30 per cent of the total Lok Sabha seats.

According to sources, talks with the PMK and Jayalalitha have reached the final stage. Apart from leaving two seats each for the CPI(M) and the CPI, Jayalalitha may leave seven seats for the PMK. These are — Arakkonam, Chidambaram, Dharmapuri, Puducherry (sitting seats of the PMK), Sriperumbudur and Mayiladuturai (held by the DMK and the Congress, respectively) and the new constituency of Tiruvannamalai.

“Politically, most of these constituencies are strongholds of the Congress and if the PMK joins hands with Jayalalitha to put up a consolidated fight, the Congress may suffer major losses in Tamil Nadu,” said a CPI leader in touch with these developments in the southern state.

Meanwhile, Prasad has ruled out any re-negotiation with the Congress. The Congress too, toughened its stand saying it would fight on 37 out of 40 seats in Bihar. Maintaining that he was still a part of the UPA, Prasad said, “If the Congress is so strong, why is it demanding seats from us? Instead, we should have demanded seats from it.”

“We (the LJP and the RJD) are in the UPA in Bihar. The Congress alone is not UPA,” he added.

Prasad also took a potshot at the Congress’ decision not to field candidates on the three seats from where Prasad and Paswan would contest. “Why are they leaving three seats? Let them contest all 40 seats,” he said. He even welcomed his brother-in-law Sadhu Yadav’s exit, saying, “We have been purified with his exit”.

To rescue its position in Tamil Nadu, the Congress is trying to rope in the DMDK —Captain Vijaykanth’s party. According to Congress sources, the DMDK is demanding around 12 seats. The top Congress leadership, however, is ready to give Vijaykanth only six seats.

As the UPA is falling apart in different parts of the country, CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat eyes this as an opportunity to strengthen the so-called Third Front.

“The Congress, after its working committee meeting in January, declared that it has no national-level alliance and that it is going for only state-level alliances. This has undermined the very basis of the UPA. In turn, it has freed the UPA allies to look for different electoral partners in various states. Some non-Congress partners of the UPA are signaling that alignments will change according to the post-poll situation. NCP President Sharad Pawar has, unlike the Congress and the BJP, stated that the Third Front cannot be written off. He has further stated that his party is not a bonded labourer of anyone”, Karat said in the forthcoming edition of the party mouthpiece, People’s Democracy.