IMD sees 'above normal' rains for Aug-Sept

Southwest monsoon likely to be 107% of long-period average; augurs well for farmers

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday retained its earlier forecast of ‘above normal’ rains during the four-month season of monsoon that started in June. The Met Office also said rains during August and September would be ‘above normal’. This could boost both kharif and rabi crops, which would not only push up economic growth but also pull down food inflation.

The Met Office maintains its June forecast for overall showers to be 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA). It also said rains during August and September would be  at 107 per cent of LPA. LPA is the average rainfall of the last 50 years, estimated at 89 cm.

The Met Office said the forecast for August and September is with an error margin of eight per cent. The latest update means there is a strong possibility of the rains making a delayed withdrawal.

This would not only aid kharif planting but also leave enough residual moisture in the soil for a bumper rabi harvest. Already, sowing of kharif crops in the first two months of this year’s monsoon season has crossed last year’s level.

The southwest monsoon is the lifeline of the country’s agriculture sector since two-thirds of cultivable land is still unirrigated. Although the share of agriculture has come down in the overall gross domestic product (GDP), it still employs the largest rural folk. With the urban demand likely to pick up from implementation of the 7th Pay Commission, rural demand might give further boost to India’s GDP, estimated at 7-7.75 per cent this financial year, against 7.6 per cent a year ago.

Despite two years of back-to-back drought, agriculture growth was 1.2 per cent in 2015-16, against contraction of 0.2 per cent in the previous year.

TAKING A RAIN CHECK

• IMD says August-September rains to be 107% of LPA, which is ‘above normal’
• India got around 43.5 cm of rainfall in the last two months of the four-month monsoon season that started from June
• IMD says August rains to be 104% of LPA
• Met Office sticks to its overall monsoon forecast of rains being ‘above normal’, at 106% of LPA between June and September
• Rains between 105-110% of LPA are classified ‘above normal’
• The average rainfall in 50 years during the four-month monsoon season is estimated to be 89 cm

The rains might also bring down the current pressure on inflation in food items. Retail price index-based food inflation rose to 7.79 per cent in June, against 7.47 per cent in May.

India gets 43.5 centimetres of rainfall during August and September, which is 49 per cent of the LPA.

The Met Office kept unchanged its projections for full season rainfall — from June to September — at 106 per cent of the LPA. This forecast was made in June.

IMD classifies rains between 105 and 110 per cent of the LPA as ‘above normal’, while that between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is categorised ‘normal’. Showers between 90 and 95 per cent of LPA are called ‘below normal’.