Bjp Can Rule Up Only By Splitting Congress

And this remains a big if, since most Congressmen have promised support once the BJP gets invitation to form the government, being the single largest party. But the position is not clear if the Governor does not extend an invitation. In the latter case not only the Congress but even many BSP MLAs may extend support. But before the invitation the position is uncertain.

There are no compelling reasons for either the Governor or Prime Minister Deve Gowda to ensure that a government run by the BJP should be given a chance.

It was thought earlier that the Congress would vote against the motion ratifying reimposition of the President rule in the state. But that is far from certain. Congress leaders point out that the leadership is in a quandary on the issue, but it is unlikely that they will vote against the motion. They have no reason to see that a BJP government is installed in the state.

Moreover, the Congress does not want to rock the UF boat till there is an alternative to take its place. When asked what happens if the Congress does not vote against the motion Lalji Tondon said the party would be deemed as an accused on the bar of the public opinion. Besides it will go against its own declared policy.

The BJP is optimistic about it getting an invitation. They argue that as the UF had won the election on the plank that Article 356 will not be used, and the front has been compelled to invoke it twice, they are facing criticism because of the deviation in their stand. This is also putting pressure on the UF parties to get the issue out of the way and the only way they can do it is to get the BJP installed in the state.

But on both these counts, there is unlikely that the party will be asked to come forward. The issues which the BJP is raising are more in the nature of election propaganda rather then serious arguments for the present case.

Governor Romesh Bhandari has said that he shall invite only the party which shows him a list of 213 MLAs. There has to be something extra for him to change his stand. The BJP may create right noises but the fact is that it will not be called unless and until it can fulfill this condition.

BSP leaders, meanwhile, have still not lost hope. Most of them are inside the BSP state headquarters which is serving as jail for them. Kanshi Ram has told them that they will have to wait for another 15 days and asked them to organise whatever other things they require. But in the meeting, one of the Muslim MLAs got up to tell him that if the reports about the BSP-BJP alliance are correct then they should forget about 12 MLAs, all Muslims, since they will have no option but to quit the party.

That should finally finish any chance of the BSP wanting to go along with the BJP.

, much to the chagrin of the Samajwadi leaders, who have been wanting to drive the BSP into the arms of the BJP.

But then BSP legislators are scared that if the BJP makes more noise and presses it claim for the formation of the government, then it may only hasten the dissolution of the assembly. They are pinning hopes on the Congress unity moves. The scenario which they have drawn is that before the beginning of the Lok Sabha session, the Congress unity moves will be accelerated and most likely will succeed. Once that happens, there is a possibility that the Congress may ask the UF to relinquish office and support them in turn for the formation of the government at the Centre. Once this happens, it will have its inevitable impact on Uttar Pradesh.

The BSP sources point this scenario as an immediate possibility.

Unless and until some spectacular development takes place, like the formation of the splinter Congress or change at the centre, the presidential rule will continue, the BJP claims notwithstanding.