Drought scare has receded in northwestern India: Laxman Singh Rathore

Interview with Director General, IMD

Since July-end, the southwest monsoon has shown a strong revival, narrowing down the overall deficiency in rains to around 15 per cent on August 22 from a high of 30 per cent in June. Director General of India Meteorological Department (IMD), Laxman Singh Rathore, tells Sanjeeb Mukherjee though drought fears have eased from the northern parts of the country, these are still very much there in north Karnataka, Maharashtra and Saurashtra regions. Edited excerpts:

Do you think the spell of good rains since July-end has erased much of the drought fear in several parts of the country as forecast by IMD earlier?
Well, yes, if you ask me, the fear of drought has receded in northwestern parts of the country and also in Rajasthan, because of copious rains in these parts of the country.

Have the rains uniformly helped in easing the drought-like conditions or in some parts it was too late to make any tangible impact?
Well, I believe fear of drought is still prevalent in the interiors of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Saurashtra region of Gujarat.

So how do the rains actually benefit all stakeholders, who till now were staring at the glaring prospect of a drought?
Look, drought impacts largely in three ways, one on foodgrain production, second on fodder and third on drinking water. Good rainfall at any point of time during the four-month southwest monsoon season helps in easing the drinking water scarcity and improving fodder availability. But, the current rains won’t have much of an impact on foodgrain production as sowing is already over. But, it will help in production of pulses like moong and also coarse cereals.

Overall, yes I can say with certainty that the current spell of rains has minimised the impact of drought.

In your last forecast, IMD said rains in September would be less than in August. After the current spell of good rains, do you still stick to your forecast and will the overall shortfall remain at 15 per cent as predicted by you in early August?
Yes, as of now, we are sticking to our forecast that rains in September would be less than in August and the cumulative rainfall across the country during the four-month season will be around 85 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA). The reason behind this is we firmly believe that El Niño will make an appearance around September.

What is the current position of El Niño?
MD has always said El Niño will have no impact on August rains, but it will definitely have some impact on the showers in September.