Economy to have grown by 8.6% in Q4 FY10: Kaushik Basu

The Indian economy is likely to have grown by 8.6 per cent in the January-March quarter and may grow near the upper end of an estimated range of 8.25 to 8.75 per cent in this fiscal, Chief Economic Advisor Kaushik Basu said.

Further, Basu said the economy's growth is poised to touch the rate of 10 per cent in the next four years.

"Let me put down a forecast... I feel that we are going to cross 8.6 per cent in the last quarter of the last fiscal," Basu said at a function organised by industry body Assocham.

For the first three quarters of 2009-10, the economy grew at 6.1 per cent, 7.9 per cent and 6.0 per cent, respectively. As per the Central Statistical Organisation, India is likely to have grown at 7.2 per cent during the entire last fiscal.
 
"In the year that we have just entered, we were forecasting at the ministry between 8.25 to 8.75 (per cent). Now, I think we are going to stay at the upper end of that (range) this year," he said.
 
It is well within the realm of possibility for India to break into the 10 per cent growth rate within the next four years, he added.

"I feel the remarkable turnaround that has taken place in the economy is really by and large through very careful fiscal measures, but there is a battle ahead," he cautioned.
 
Basu said things can turn out different from what the general expectations are and it called for carefulness.

"You (the government) have to be careful... You have to craft your policies very carefully," he said.