GDP back-series data may not be released

CSO had released numbers with a new base year in Jan 2015; promised comparable data for past years

The Centre might not release data for financial years before 2011-12 under the new gross domestic product (GDP) series. There have been variations in headline numbers for some of the years in the past decade and these were questioned internally. Moreover, a lot of the raw data is incomplete or unavailable, Business Standard has learnt.

When the Central Statistics Office (CSO) had released GDP with a new base year (2011-12) in January 2015, it had promised to release comparable data for the past years. Back-series data till 2011-12 was released and included 2013-14, the last year of the Manmohan Singh government. It showed a sharp jump in GDP growth to 6.9 per cent for that year, against earlier estimates of 4.7 per cent under the old series.

The finance ministry and the CSO had said comparable revisions for the previous years would be released as well, which could be as far back as 2004-05. This was supposed to happen by mid-2016. But this might not happen now.

“It is going to be very difficult. The biggest problem is that we have to project corporate performance,” said a senior government official. “Data of five lakh (500,000) corporates under the MCA 21 indicator has been given 2011 onwards. Data before that is incomplete and patchy.”

When asked on the matter by Business Standard last week, Chief Statistician of India T C A Anant had declined to go into the details, but said: “The task of back-series data is under examination. But there are lots of challenges. We will release the data only when we are satisfied.”

Internal calculations in the CSO with the new series show wild discrepancies in numbers, with 2008-09 showing GDP growth of less than two per cent in the new series against 6.7 per cent in the old series, according to sources. 2008-09 was the year of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the bankruptcy of Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers.

Sources said a panel headed by Cabinet Secretary P K Sinha, which reviewed the older data under the new-series, has been apprehensive about releasing it, given the political implications of such a move, as the United Progressive Alliance was in power then.

Senior decision-makers in the government had said there was a lot of controversy about GDP data when the series was released and this could be re-ignited if the back-series was released, said sources. The CSO came under a lot of flak after it released the new GDP series in January 2015, as data showed a sharp jump in growth.