Kharif area shows slight uptick

Monsoon starts withdrawing from northwest, complicating projections for kharif output

Monsoon has started withdrawing from the northwestern region of the country, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.

“The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from western parts of Rajasthan,” the department said. The conditions are favourable for further withdrawal of the monsoon from northwest India in the next three-four days, it added.

According to economists, it is too early to predict the impact of monsoon on kharif production, but it could be slightly higher than last year’s.

Kharif crops were sown on 99.87 million hectares till Friday, compared to 97.9 million hectares in the corresponding period last year. There has been higher acreage in almost all crops, except cotton and jute.

Almost 95 per cent of the kharif cultivation is over by now. Paddy was grown on 36.1 million hectares this time around, against 35.5 million hectares a year ago.

Similarly, acreage of pulses, which is witnessing major inflationary pressure, rose to 10.8 million hectares against 9.7 million hectares last year.

Coarse cereals saw its cultivation reach 17.9 million hectares against 17 million hectares.

Oilseeds, another important crop that could influence inflation, was cultivated on 17.8 million hectares this year against 17.3 million hectares last year.

Sugarcane, which is facing major price drop, saw its acreage rising to 4.88 million hectares against 4.87 million hectares a year ago.

Only jute & mesta, and cotton saw their acreage come down. While jute & mesta was grown on 780,000 hectares against 800,000 hectares, cotton acreage declined to 11.4 million hectares against 12.4 million hectares a year ago.

Aditi Nayar, senior economist at ICRA, said while sowing data is reassuring in light of the weak monsoon dynamics, uncertainty persists on the eventual yields of kharif crops.

Meanwhile, cumulative monsoon for the season — June 1 to September 3 — remains unchanged from the previous week and was recorded at 12 per cent below normal in line with the prediction of IMD.

However, regional distribution has weakened sharply within a span of two weeks with 58 per cent of the country’s area currently recording excess to normal rainfall, according to a note by YES Bank.

As of August 23, as much as 73 per cent of India’s area recorded excess to normal rainfall. Devendra Pant, chief economist with India Ratings, said kharif production might be slightly up over last year’s production. However, rabi crops’ yield might depend on moisture content in the fields, he added.

If kharif crops use up all moisture content in the fields, then there could be adverse impact on rabi production, Pant said. Agriculture and allied sectors’ growth slowed down to 1.9 per cent in the first quarter of the current financial year against 2.6 per cent in the corresponding period last year.

India’s June-September monsoon has started withdrawing from the northwestern region, which could increase the rainfall deficit for the season. The monsoon usually starts withdrawing in the first week of September.