Recovery tracker: Power generation back in positive territory as curbs ease

Other indicators including mobility have been on the rise

Lifting of restrictions in multiple states has helped increase the demand for electricity. Economic activity appears to be picking up overall with multiple indicators showing signs of gains.

Power generation continued to recover as more and more states ended Covid-19 restrictions. Electricity generation in the country was up 8.6 per cent year-on-year last week and up 2.7 per cent compared to the same week in the 2019 calendar year. The surge in power generation could also be attributed in part to the start of the paddy sowing season in most parts of the country that increases the demand for irrigation (see chart 1).

People are spending less time at home than before, shows mobility trends from search engine Google. It is based on anonymised location data that the company collects from users. Shopping for essentials seems among the key reasons for stepping out. Grocery and pharmacy visits are 7.3 per cent higher than they were pre-Covid. It had been negative since the end of April. The latest data is as of 23rd June. Workplace visits are at mid-April levels (see chart 2).

The Indian Railways is carrying more goods now than last year. The quantity of goods for the seven days ending Sunday, June 27 is up 15.5 per cent over the same period last year. Earnings are up 19.5 per cent (see chart 3).

Traffic congestion in Mumbai fell further behind 2019 levels in the latest week. It was 48 per cent below the 2019 average in the latest week, according to data from global location technology firm TomTom International.   New Delhi traffic continued to improve. Congestion was 44 per cent below 2019 levels compared to 46 per cent in the previous week (see chart 4).

Business Standard tracks nitrogen dioxide emissions. It comes from industrial activity and vehicles. A pick-up in emissions is often seen as a sign of more activity.  Delhi emissions are down 8.9 per cent over 2019. It was in double-digit decline for much of June. Mumbai emissions are around a third below levels seen in 2019 (see chart 5,6).

These weekly economic indicators give a current sense of economic trends. Official macroeconomic data is often released with a lag. Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators. They help assess the economic situation on the ground as different countries went into lockdown to control the Covid-19 pandemic. All data is as of the week ending Sunday, 27th June; except Google’s mobility numbers.