WLL base may fall to 4.2 mn by 2008

The wireless in local loop (WLL) subscriber base is slated to fall to 4.2 million by 2008 because of the ratification of unified licensing.

The new regime converts most of the code division multiple access-WLL subscribers to full mobility services with roaming capabilities, according research firm International Data Corporation (IDC).

"With the change in licensing norms, the WLL subscriber base in India is slated to fall to 4.2 million by 2008, which is substantially lower than the WLL subscriber base in 2003 -- before the unified licensing regime came into effect," IDC said.

However, subsequent growth would come from limited cordect WLL base, and the remaining WLL CDMA subscribers on fixed terminals, it said.

In contrast, China's WLL subscriber base is expected to touch 35.9 million by 2008. However, this is coming from a peak in subscriber base in 2006, by which time 3G is expected to start gaining momentum in China, together with fixed lines.

WLL services in India and China combined contributed $1.1 billion or 3.3 per cent of the overall voice revenue in 2003, and this figure will double to reach $2.06 billion by 2008.

"Carriers in India and China have been deploying WLL new networks as a way of building PSTN networks cost-effectively in low tele-density areas," said Lau Chi Weng, telecom research analyst at IDC.

"In India, the market is rapidly evolving. The remaining cordect base and the fixed terminal CDMA base still have the potential in rural areas where basic telephony is lacking. Motivation to build copper lines in these areas will be superseded by WLL," IDC said.

IDC said in India WLL was first used by carriers to rapidly build networks and then as a way of skirting around licensing restrictions on mobile services.

"It first appeared as the poor man's mobile service, but in recent months has morphed into alternative CDMA cellular services that are competing with the more established mobile operators," IDC said.

WLL services using CDMA technology have been made popular in India by Reliance Infocomm. By December 2003, Reliance had added more than four million subscribers in a span of just nine months.

With the new unified licensing regime taking effect, Reliance is converting its subscribers to full mobility services, propelling itself to be the fourth largest mobile service provider in India after Bharti, BSNL and Hutchison.