Lok Sabha elections: A tight fight ahead in PM Modi's home state Gujarat

Since 2014, a lot has changed in Gujarat, especially after the 2017 Assembly elections

Irrespective of whichever party wins in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state Gujarat in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, there is consensus on at least one issue — it will not be a clean sweep by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as in 2014.

As Gujarat goes to vote on April 23 in the third phase, many believe the outcome will mirror the 2017 Assembly results, when Congress gave the BJP a tough fight.

The urban-rural area divide that came to the fore in 2017 might see a repeat in this elections. “The rural agrarian areas and communities have been a challenge since 2017. However, the government has been active in placating farmers and other communities through minimum support price and reservation for the economically backward,” says a BJP insider. 

As against 115 seats of the 182 in Gujarat Assembly in 2012, BJP could manage just 99 in 2017, as Congress’ tally shot up from 61 seats to 77. Congress gained in Saurashtra, an agrarian region, apart from some central seats, including tribal areas.

As a result, many estimate the Congress to win anything between three and 12 seats this time. Political analysts and observers point out at not only stress for the BJP due to anti-establishment mood in the agrarian and rural regions, but also Congress’ strategic moves to field key community leaders, who could get the party some seats.

Gujarat is largely divided into North, Central, South and Kutch-Saurashtra regions. Of these, seats in and around Ahmedabad, Vadodara and Surat, in Central and South Gujarat, along with Rajkot in Saurashtra, are considered urban, almost all of which may go to the BJP, say political analysts and observers like Vidyut Joshi and Gaurang Jani. 

However, the rural agrarian regions of Kutch-Saurashtra and North Gujarat hold a key for Congress. In 2017, the agrarian votes, led by Patidar farmers, had helped Congress gain a stronghold in Kutch-Saurashtra region, as it won 30 of 54 seats. In the north, the Congress managed to eat into the BJP’s votes, at least in seats such as Radhanpur and Patan (in Sabarkantha) and in seats like Vadgam, independent candidates like Jignesh Mevani did well. Congress improved its tally to 24, while the BJP lost a few seats from the 2012 Assembly polls in 2017. 

Farmers in Gujarat have been taking out rallies, seeking loan waivers and better crop prices, apart from rural youths battling with joblessness unlike their urban counterparts. 

In fact, the 2019 general elections will not only bring the urban-rural divide to the fore in Gujarat, but also farmer versus non-farmer and youth versus old divide, says Joshi. 

In terms of communities, the Patidars comprising Leuva and Kadva Patels, are divided, with two-thirds set to vote for the BJP, while the remaining one-third in the rural areas supporting the Congress. This year, the BJP has also replaced candidates across 10 seats, including that of Gandhinagar where veteran L K Advani has been replaced by party president Amit Shah.

Similarly, the Congress too has fielded multiple Koli Patels in key seats, including Surendranagar in Saurashtra. Among the communities in Gujarat, especially in Saurashtra region, the Kshatriyas are also believed to be angry with the BJP.

In the Northern region, seats of Banaskantha and Mehsana will also be crucial given the active involvement of dairy co-operative sector. 

"Mehsana too will be a tough fight though BJP is likely to win. This is because the dairy there has resolved to support Congress," explains Joshi.

Meanwhile, despite the exit of the young community leader Alpesh Thakor, Congress leaders as well as outsiders believe the party may still hold its sway among the Thakors. "Recently, the Congress candidate from Patan seat Jagdish Thakor even called a meeting of the community which is rallying behind him and said they don't support Alpesh. As a result, we are pretty confident of winning the seat," says a senior Congress leader.