Palaniswami gets seats he needed, Stalin may have to work harder next term

Chief Minister Edapaddi K Palaniswami-led AIADMK government can breathe a sigh of relief, as his party has won nine out of the 22 assembly seats in the by-polls, which could help it survive with a majority on the floor. This is despite the fact that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) won the other 13 seats. The government, which was predicted as unstable even for a short while, has now completed two years and the victory is expected to help them complete the remaining two years as well.

With 113 MLAs, excluding the Assembly Speaker, the AIADMK needed four seats, apart from retaining a few disgruntled MLAs to cross the half-way mark of 117 in a house of 234. By bagging nine seats, the ruling faction is now safe as the number is expected to reach 122 and help them to complete the term ending in 2021. DMK-led alliance has 97 MLAs in the Assembly, including eight from the Congress and one from the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML).

Experts are of the view that Palaniswami's move to bring in Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and others into its alliance has worked well for him and with this victory, and that he may be able to consolidate his power in the party. However, the challenge for Palaniswami is to ensure none of the MLAs move out anymore.

S Raveenthran Duraisamy, a political expert and commentator, said AIADMK has worked tirelessly to save the government and was successful in doing so this by-election. "There were only two possibilities -- either Edappadi or election. The results shows that Edappadi may be able to continue," he added. 

Meanwhile, the party and its allies, including Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), put up a poor show in the Lok Sabha elections. The party won a solitary Lok Sabha seat, while DMK allies swept the remaining 37 seats. 

For Stalin, who has been eyeing a larger role at the Centre, his party's majority in the Lok Sabha does not give it a hold in Delhi now. The DMK had been a major ally in the Congress-led governments in 2004 and 2009. With the BJP getting a clear majority on its own steam, Stalin may have to wait a few years before his outfit's can start flexing its muscles in the Capital.

Commenting on DMK alliance's majority in the Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha polls, Duraisamy said the MPs Stalin plans to send may achieve little in Delhi, as was the case with the 37 MPs from Jayalalithaa's party.

With just 13 more seats in Legislative Assembly, the possibility of his toppling the AIADMK government and forming his own is now next to nil. Stalin may have to work harder to win the Assembly polls next term, considering that Palaniswami may become stronger in AIADMK with time, given the current trend. Stalin may also have to fight with Rajinikanth, who has announced plans to enter politics before the next State Assembly elections.

Tamil Nadu by-polls and Lok Sabha elections in 2019 are closely watched in the State for two reasons. All the main parties – AIADMK, DMK, AMMA and MNM -- went for election under new leaders for whom the elections were an acid test. Secondly, the bypoll outcome will decide the fate of the ruling AIADMK Government.

AIADMK rebel leader T T V Dhinakaran, who floated AMMK, managed to split AIADMK supporters and was able to garner critical votes in constituencies like Sathur and Thiruparankundram, and acquire third position in many of these Assembly constituencies, but the party couldn't win a single seat in the by-polls and in Lok Sabha elections. 

Same was the case with Kamal Hassan's Makkal Nidhi Maiyam (MNM), which made its debut this election. None of its candidates won in the Assembly and Lok Sabha, though it has won a significant number of votes in the Lok Sabha constituencies like Coimbatore.

What would the future of these two leaders be? One need to wait and watch. Another political party that has emerged into the limelight is Nam Tamizhar, a regional outfit that acquired the third or fourth position in some Assembly seats.

Interestingly, leaders who were in linked to the 2G scam, such as Dayanidhi Maran, Kanimozhi and A Raja have all been winning their respective seats easily. 

Former Union Minister P Chidambaram's son Karti Chidambaram won in Sivaganga even though there were allegations against him, while Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister O Pannerselvam's son O P Ravindranath Kumar became one of the few AIADMK candidates in the State to win from Theni after defeating seasoned Congress leader EVKS Elangovan. Union Minister of State for Finance and Shipping Pon Radhakrishnan is trailing in Kanyakumari Parliamentary Constituency against Congress leader H Vasanthakumar. BJP, which had one seat through Pon Radhakrishnan, has no lead in the Parliamentary constituencies during this election.
 
Palaniswami gets seats he needed, Stalin may have to work harder next term

AIADMK wins the crucial nine seats that will help it prove majority on the floor, despite the fact that DMK took the other 13 seats 

T E NARASIMHAN & GIREESH BABU
Chennai, 24 May

Chief Minister Edapaddi K Palaniswami-led AIADMK government can breathe a sigh of relief, as his party has won nine out of the 22 assembly seats in the by-polls, which could help it survive with a majority on the floor. This is despite the fact that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) won the other 13 seats. The government, which was predicted as unstable even for a short while, has now completed two years and the victory is expected to help them complete the remaining two years as well.

With 113 MLAs, excluding the Assembly Speaker, the AIADMK needed four seats, apart from retaining a few disgruntled MLAs to cross the half-way mark of 117 in a house of 234. By bagging nine seats, the ruling faction is now safe as the number is expected to reach 122 and help them to complete the term ending in 2021. DMK-led alliance has 97 MLAs in the Assembly, including eight from the Congress and one from the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML).

Experts are of the view that Palaniswami's move to bring in Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and others into its alliance has worked well for him and with this victory, and that he may be able to consolidate his power in the party. However, the challenge for Palaniswami is to ensure none of the MLAs move out anymore.

S Raveenthran Duraisamy, a political expert and commentator, said AIADMK has worked tirelessly to save the government and was successful in doing so this by-election. "There were only two possibilities -- either Edappadi or election. The results shows that Edappadi may be able to continue," he added. 

Meanwhile, the party and its allies, including Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), put up a poor show in the Lok Sabha elections. The party won a solitary Lok Sabha seat, while DMK allies swept the remaining 37 seats. 

For Stalin, who has been eyeing a larger role at the Centre, his party's majority in the Lok Sabha does not give it a hold in Delhi now. The DMK had been a major ally in the Congress-led governments in 2004 and 2009. With the BJP getting a clear majority on its own steam, Stalin may have to wait a few years before his outfit's can start flexing its muscles in the Capital.

Commenting on DMK alliance's majority in the Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha polls, Duraisamy said the MPs Stalin plans to send may achieve little in Delhi, as was the case with the 37 MPs from Jayalalithaa's party.

With just 13 more seats in Legislative Assembly, the possibility of his toppling the AIADMK government and forming his own is now next to nil. Stalin may have to work harder to win the Assembly polls next term, considering that Palaniswami may become stronger in AIADMK with time, given the current trend. Stalin may also have to fight with Rajinikanth, who has announced plans to enter politics before the next State Assembly elections.

Tamil Nadu by-polls and Lok Sabha elections in 2019 are closely watched in the State for two reasons. All the main parties – AIADMK, DMK, AMMA and MNM -- went for election under new leaders for whom the elections were an acid test. Secondly, the bypoll outcome will decide the fate of the ruling AIADMK Government.

AIADMK rebel leader T T V Dhinakaran, who floated AMMK, managed to split AIADMK supporters and was able to garner critical votes in constituencies like Sathur and Thiruparankundram, and acquire third position in many of these Assembly constituencies, but the party couldn't win a single seat in the by-polls and in Lok Sabha elections. 

Same was the case with Kamal Hassan's Makkal Nidhi Maiyam (MNM), which made its debut this election. None of its candidates won in the Assembly and Lok Sabha, though it has won a significant number of votes in the Lok Sabha constituencies like Coimbatore.

What would the future of these two leaders be? One need to wait and watch. Another political party that has emerged into the limelight is Nam Tamizhar, a regional outfit that acquired the third or fourth position in some Assembly seats.

Interestingly, leaders who were in linked to the 2G scam, such as Dayanidhi Maran, Kanimozhi and A Raja have all been winning their respective seats easily. 

Former Union Minister P Chidambaram's son Karti Chidambaram won in Sivaganga even though there were allegations against him, while Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister O Pannerselvam's son O P Ravindranath Kumar became one of the few AIADMK candidates in the State to win from Theni after defeating seasoned Congress leader EVKS Elangovan. Union Minister of State for Finance and Shipping Pon Radhakrishnan is trailing in Kanyakumari Parliamentary Constituency against Congress leader H Vasanthakumar. BJP, which had one seat through Pon Radhakrishnan, has no lead in the Parliamentary constituencies during this election.