Lok Sabha polls: 'Squirrel' TMC digs deep, doesn't rule out queen's chair

While it's tough to chase Mamata on her back-to-back campaign trail as she invariably reaches the next venue much faster than anybody else can, the buzz on growing support for Modi is hard to ignore

Derek O’Brien, chief national spokes­person and leader of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the Rajya Sabha, rushed to take a call on his mobile while speaking to Business Standard Friday afternoon. On the other side was ‘Didi’, as Bengal chief minister and TMC founder Mamata Banerjee is popularly known. Worried that former Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Yashwant Sinha, had suddenly fallen ill while campaigning for TMC in Kolkata, Banerjee wanted to ensure the best care possible. Pilot cars and a team of helpers were sent out in no time and Didi was promised hourly updates on Sinha’s health.

Cyclone Fani, that hit the Odisha coasts early morning, washed out the election campaign rosters in West Bengal as well, giving some free time to political managers who’ve been working 24x7. But Banerjee, who too cancelled her campaigns, rallies and public meetings for 48 hours, got busy with precautionary measures, including shutting down of airports, while constantly checking the social media updates on both Fani and poll buzz. She can’t stay away from mobiles, WhatsApp and FaceBook, people who know her well say.

On the campaign trail

Engaged in regular face-offs with Prime Minister Narendra Modi through her speeches and Twitter messages as West Bengal has emerged one of the most important states in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Banerjee has been doing two to three rallies daily. The total count is between 84 and 102 rallies,  mostly flying in and out of constituencies in a chopper that’s parked in the grounds where she addresses gatherings up to 8,000-10,000. Add to that 35 padyatras. Besides a helicopter for Banerjee, two more are in a state of readiness all the time. 

One for Abhishek Banerjee, TMC MP from Diamond Harbour constituency and the CM’s nephew; and another for Suvendu Adhikari, minister in charge for transport and environment in the state. Behala Flying Club is often the take-off point for Didi, who’s fighting it all out to block the BJP from making further inroads into the state, according to people in the know.

While it’s tough to chase Baner­j­ee on her back-to-back campaign trail as she’s invariably before time, the talk of a growing support base for Modi is hard to ignore. At a rally addressed by Banerjee in Palta, a to­wn in the Barrackpore constituency, a homemaker said earlier this week, “Modi delivers, he’s a strong leader.” She has many backers. A state government official, requesting anonymity, said, “A coalition government at the Centre will be no good, we need a strong leader at the top and Modi is the answer.” 

The numbers don’t match

O’Brien doesn’t want to get into the numbers on how many seats TMC and BJP could win. “I’m not a psephologist,” he said, adding, ‘’BJP won’t get enough to form the next government at the Centre.’’  The TMC, he said, would stick to its target of winning all 42 seats in West Bengal. BJP President Amit Shah had recently projected 23 out of 42 for his party in the state. If that happens, the BJP would add 21 to its current kitty of two in the state.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, TMC won 34 seats, Congress four, BJP two and CPI(M) two. “Let’s compare on May 23, who’s closer to the truth,” O’Brien said. “BJP is likely to be the main Opposition party when it comes to Lok Sabha seats from West Bengal. Nothing more.”
 

While political analysts pointed out that BJP’s Bengal vote share could increase from around 17 per cent in 2014, they argued it’s being over-ambitious on the number of seats. BJP could well get the seats that Congress and CPI(M) had got five years ago, that could push up its tally to around eight.

On the other hand, BJP, which does not have any strong public face in West Bengal, is laughing at TMC’s “optimism”. At the non-descript BJP headquarter, next to Yunani Diagnostics in Kolkata’s College Square, Tushar Kanti Ghosh, state secretary of the party, told this newspaper, “We are likely to cross 30 seats in West Bengal. Earlier, the estimate was more than 20, but the support base is swelling.”

Modi versus Didi

Leaving nothing to chance, the tallest BJP leaders —Modi and Shah — have been campaigning in the state regularly. They are scheduled to come again next week ahead of the two final phases. According to TMC partymen, there’s no match between Didi’s connect with people and that of Modi and Shah, who don’t know the language of the majority in the state. Banerjee and Modi make it a point to hit out at each other in their election speeches, from rosogolla with pebbles to speed-breaker Didi and much more.   

If Banerjee could be the PM if the mahagatbandhan were to form the government at the Centre, O’Brien said she had the CV for the top job. “But, TMC doesn’t mind being the squirrel,” he said, elaborating that in every garden squirrels are needed to do the ground work. “Squirrels can sometimes become the queen of the garden,” he joked.

Meanwhile, the pre-election coalition that was announced in January, is holding meetings to join the manifestos of the various parties, to be prepared to form the next government, it is learnt.

Banerjee, who stays away from media interviews barring to a couple of TV channels, is spearheading the coalition work. In the process, she doesn’t miss her twice a day exercise regime — 90 minutes on the treadmill and a round of brisk walk. A fr­ugal eater, Didi loves her muri, and can do with very few hours of sleep, a quality that she shares with her biggest rival, the PM.