TV channels misread early trends

For the first two hours of the vote count, a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government looked certain in Bihar, as television channels showed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leading in most constituencies. News anchors congratulated NDA party leaders as firecrackers went off outside party offices.

However, much of this changed around 10 am as the tide seemed to shift away from the NDA and towards the Janata Dal-Rashtriya Janata Dal alliance. The festivities disappeared and NDA leaders began singing a different tune.

As the results began to flow, it emerged that some of the television channels had not only got the exit polls wrong but also missed to read how the election unfolded on Sunday. According to experts, the television channels got the trend wrong as most of them relied on a single agency for data. This agency supplies data ahead of the Election Commission, which makes it preferable for news channels. According to these experts, the agency relied on postal ballots, which tend to favour a national party over regional parties.

Yogendra Yadav, a psephologist and a panelist on a show anchored by Roy, said, "This sort of discrepancy is a first." According to Yadav, the local channels had got the results right, but the national channels got it wrong as they were dependent on a 'consortium', which showed results in BJP's favour.

Rajdeep Sardesai, consulting editor, India Today Group, believes that precaution is the best remedy in such a situation. "I maintained from 8.30 am not to go by early trends. The initial trends are based on postal ballots and so it's like calling a (cricket) match based on the first couple of overs. I said on-air as well that once bitten, twice shy. Let's not predict based on first round and postal ballot as some (channels) tried to do it in UP (elections) in 2012. I called the election at 9.55 am that Nitish will win. I, in fact ended up at times contradicting our screen numbers because I was constantly referring to information from local channels which have stringers at polling booths."