$ Props Spot, Rising Yields Tag Along Premiums

The spot rupee closed a little higher at 48.9900/9950 today as compared to Friday's close of 49.0000/0025. Forward premium rates tracked the movement of the government paper yield and closed a little higher.

The spot market was dull today. The currency opened slightly higher at 49.01/02 levels. But later there was some corporate supply of dollars which helped the Indian currency to appreciate against the greenback.

In the forward premiums market, trading was very thin since morning and the rates hovered in a tight range. As the government paper yields rose a bit, the same happened to the premium rates as well. The six-month annualised premium closed at 5.61 per cent as against Friday's close of 5.58 per cent. The one-year premium rose six basis points up from Friday's closing level of 5.48 per cent to end the day at 5.54 per cent.

Tomorrow, the spot rupee will continue to remain stable against the greenback as the dealers are not expecting any major inflow or outflow of dollars. Moreover, in case of volatility in the spot market, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to intervene. In the forward premiums market, the rates should be in a tight range and guided by the yield movement in the government paper market. For the six-month annualised premium, the likely range is 5.55-5.65 per cent and the one-year premium may be ranged around 5.45-5.55 per cent.