Do you think the RBI’s extension of the EMI loan moratorium for another three months is enough for the industry?
Borrowers had received a three-month moratorium earlier which was necessary when the entire country was under a lockdown. However, now many parts of the economy are gradually opening up. Instead of extending the moratorium by another three months, it would have been better to allow lenders to offer a one-time restructuring only to those who need it.
The extended moratorium to all has the risk of altering borrower behaviour since they will not pay any EMI for six months. I think, at best, this could be extended to long term or large value loans where there is merit in giving some more time.
The uncertainty over whether the moratorium is to be offered on incremental loans granted by lenders after March 1, 2020 will also impact the ability of the industry to quickly start lending activities, hence the RBI should clarify this.
What is missing is a demand stimulus. The lockdown in the past two months has stopped almost all demand and supply of goods and services. Most salaried employees have got paid but haven’t spent much. There is a reasonable possibility of our economy bouncing back if we jumpstart it through policy measures.
This requires both demand side and supply side stimulus. As the economy restarts and our engines start chugging again, the incremental support required will be less and the government can return to its focus on fiscal prudence. But the more this is delayed, the higher will be the stimulus that will be required later.
Till we find a cure or a vaccine, we have to strike a balance between protecting lives from the virus and economic hardship.
As the economy grows, the fiscal deficit ratio will start reducing. We will be in a much more difficult place if we don’t jumpstart the economy and are left with permanent long-term economic damage.
Should the government support a wider set of businesses and if so, why?
Many of these businesses are run by small entrepreneurs and if they don’t get upfront support from the government, they are unlikely to recover soon and some may even perish. Again, one must remember that this support is required only in the short term and is more to rebuild confidence in the business community.
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