Oil story: there's a new world order to talk about at the Davos of energy

The Saudis may go public, OPEC's in disarray, the US is suddenly a global exporter, and shale drillers are seeking lifelines from investors as banks abandon them.

Welcome to oil's new world order, full of stresses, strains and fractures. For leaders gathering in Houston next week at the IHS CERA Week conference - often dubbed the Davos of the energy industry - a key question is: what will break first? Will it be the balance sheets of big US shale companies? The treasuries of Venezuela and Nigeria? The resolve of Saudi Arabia, whose recent deal with Russia to freeze output levels offered the first hint of a rethink?

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After watching prices crash through floor after floor in the worst slump for a generation, the industry is eager for answers. Insiders say it's not too hard to visualise what markets might look like after the storm - say five years down the line, when today's cost-cutting creates a supply vacuum that will push up prices. But it's what happens in the meantime that's got them scratching their heads.

"This is a weird thing for a market analyst to say because it's usually the opposite case, but I have more conviction in my five-year outlook than my one-year outlook," said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research for Societe Generale. "Maybe I'm letting my head get turned upside down by the last couple months."

Seeking clarity at closed-door sessions, cocktail hours and water-coolers in Houston will be some of the industry's biggest players, from Saudi Petroleum Minister Ali al-Naimi to Royal Dutch Shell Chief Executive Officer Ben Van Beurden.

In a less volatile year, the long-term viability of fossil fuels might have been high on their agenda after December's breakthrough climate deal in Paris. But within the industry, that debate has "fallen into the abyss of $27 oil," said Deborah Gordon, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's energy and climate programme.

"It seems like it's never a good time," she said. "You can't have these conversations when oil is $125 because then you can't get it out of the ground quickly enough. And you can't have it at $27 because you're just trying to survive."

US shale drillers had a key role in bringing prices that low, by adding 4 million barrels a day in less than four years -almost like a new OPEC member materialising overnight. Natural gas has mirrored the pattern, with surging output and plunging prices.

Now the companies are victims of their own success. As many as 74 face significant difficulties in sustaining debt, according to Moody's Investors Service. The effective yield of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch High-Yield Energy Index rose to more than 21 per cent on February 11, the most since it was created in 1997.