Accuracy problem muddies agri commodity export data

Shipments fall dramatically in the April-August period from those in April-July.

It may be part of the mistakenly inflated export figures issued earlier this year, admitted to by the commerce secretary, but those for agricultural commodities have shown a sharp decline in the April-August period from the figures issued for April-July.

S Dave, director of the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (Apeda) blames the source of this data, the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) for the discrepancy.
 

THE UNUSUAL TREND Exports of various commodities (in tonnes)
Commodity	2010-11 April - August	2011-12		Apr-Aug Chg y-o-y (%)

April-JulyApril -August Pulses117,00095,11985,247

(-)27

Groundnut136,665388,890237,40074 Guar gum132,309193,802183,66239 Basmati rice849,556991,246923,3899 Wheat2775,861810192 Other cereals881,0841,170,1061,092,61224 Source: Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority

Data compiled by DGCIS and displayed at the Apeda website showed shipment of pulses, groundnut, guar gum, basmati rice, wheat and other cereals plunged dramatically between April-August period as compared to the figures shown for April-July.

Export of pulses showed a fall to 85,247 tonnes for April-August as compared to 95,119 tonnes for the period until a month before. Groundnut exports saw a decline to 237,400 tonnes between April-August as compared to April-July.

Early this month, commerce secretary Rahul Khullar had admitted that overall export data for the year had been mistakenly inflated by $9 billion, saying the cause was a glitch in the computer system that collated the figures.

The performance of the engineering goods sector had been exaggerated because certain shipments had been incorrectly classified. Export of petroleum products, on the other hand, had been under-estimated.

The ministry had consistently emphasised that the data released each month was provisional, and it had been open about concerns that the figures were unreliable, Khullar had said.

The revised data showed overall export grew 33 per cent between April and November, hitting $193 billion.

“All data are provisional. There will always be a possibility of change once data is compiled through various sources. A number of ports from the remotest part of the country share date with a lag and, hence, these numbers tend to change,” Dave added.

The downward revision in overall export of commodities such as guar gum and basmati rice may have a negative impact on market sentiment, said an analyst.