Cotton output may be at historic high

The area under cotton this year, according to CAB, is 11.5 mn hectares, compared to 11.9 mn hectares last year

Cotton output this cotton year (Oct 13-Sept 14) is expected to be at an all-time high despite the sowing under cotton being lower compared to last year as the yield per hectare has gone up.

The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its first meeting for the current cotton year, has pegged it at 37.5 million bales ( a bale is 170 kg). Last year (Oct 12-Sept 13), the total area under cotton was revised upwards by the CAB at 36.5 million bales. In last April, the board had pegged output at 34 million bales.

The area under cotton this year, according to CAB, is 11.5 million hectares, compared to 11.9 million hectares last year, due to a fall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.

There was some crop damage in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh due to floods in these regions. The area in Maharashtra has fallen by 6.6 per cent to 3.8 million ha. Andhra Pradesh's area has fallen by 10.7 per cent to 2.1 million ha and Rajasthan's area has fallen by 32 per cent to 300,000 ha.

“This year the yield per hectare is 500 kg per hectare and the textile ministry is now working with the ministry of agriculture to increase yield with a target to increase it to 550 kg per ha,” said A B Joshi, textile commissioner.

The world average is 750 kg.

The price of cotton in the international market is likely to remain moderate, according to the Intentional Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). ICAC has done a price forecast of cotton and expects cotton prices to trade between 76 cents per pound to 106 cents per pound and expect 90 cents per pound to be the mid point.

CAB estimates export demand for cotton this year to be lower as China has reduced its cotton imports from India since they are sitting on eight million tonnes (47 million bales) of cotton.

This year, cotton demand is estimated to be nine million bales, compared to 10.1 million bales last year.

Mills consumption this year is estimated to 25.8 million tonnes, compared to 25 million tonnes last year, and non-mills consumption is estimated to be higher at 1.5 million bales, compared to one million bales last year.

Imports of cotton are also pegged to be higher this year at 1.7 million bales, compared to 1.4 million bales last year.

Cotton yarn exports this financial year have already crossed 1,000 million kg due to good demand for cotton yarn from China and Bangladesh. But going ahead, the textile ministry is concerned if this will sustain.