Global oilseed output forecast raised by Oil World on soya bean, sunflower

Global oilseed production will be larger than estimated a month ago because of improving prospects for soya beans in Brazil and sunflowers in Russia and Ukraine, Oil World said.

Production of seven major oilseeds will be 491 million tonnes in the 2013-14 marketing year, two million more than previously estimated and seven per cent higher than the prior season, the Hamburg-based researcher said in an e-mailed report. The outlook was raised for world harvests of soya beans, sunflower seed and rapeseed, signalling ample supplies of the crops used in cooking oil, biofuel and livestock feed and potentially falling prices, according to the report.

"We are quite bearish on soya bean prices and see considerable downward potential, with beans likely to fall below rapeseed and sunflower seed" on average through June, Oil World said. Global inventories of all three will rise to records by the end of the season, according to the report.

Bean futures declined 11 per cent in the past year on the Chicago Board of Trade, the global benchmark. Oil World expects spot prices for the oilseed delivered in Rotterdam to average $480 a tonne from January through June, compared with $515 a ton for European sunflower seed and $500 a ton for rapeseed. Beans were $555 a tonne October to December, sunflower seed was $480 a tonne and rapeseed $511 a tonne, it said.

World soya beans
World production of beans will be 287.8 million tonnes, up from an estimate in December of 287.6 million, Oil World said. The researcher pegged Brazil's crop at 89.5 million tons and reduced its outlook for Argentina to 54 million tonnes because of dry weather. Global inventories at the end of the 2013-14 season may be 79.2 million tons, up 26 per cent from the past year. World production of rapeseed was pegged at 69.3 million tonnes, up 8.4 per cent from a year earlier.

Global production of sunflower seed rose to 41.6 million tonnes in 2013-14, 1.4 million more than estimated in December and 17 per cent higher than the previous season, Oil World said. Combined output in Ukraine and Russia, the biggest producers, may jump 27 per cent from the prior year to 20.7 million tonnes, offsetting a decline in Argentina's crop to 2.4 million tonnes, the smallest since 1987, it said.

"This is an unprecedented year for sunseed and products, with global production setting all-time highs and creating an extremely bearish scenario this season," Oil World said.

Global production of palm oil may total 58.3 million tonnes in the 2013-14 season that ends September 30, Oil World said. That's 2.5 million tonnes more than a year earlier, while a smaller growth rate than in the prior season. In Indonesia, the biggest producer, domestic demand is increasing for biofuel use. World exports may decline for the first time in 16 years, dropping 2.3 per cent from the previous season to 43.2 million tonnes, according to the report.