Macro trends supportive of interest rate markets: Mahendra Jajoo

If the government meets its fiscal deficit target, the RBI may cut rates soon after the Budget

Three key data points were released in the last week. The December 2012 IIP declined 0.6% suggesting that economic activity continues to remain disappointing. WPI inflation for January 2013 came at 6.62%, much lower than market expectation of 7%. However, trade deficit for January was yet again worrisome at $20bn. Also, CPI inflation remained in double digits at 10.79%. Overall, the continuing slump in investment activity and the accentuating trend of moderating inflation lends fresh support to expectation of further rate cuts by RBI in coming months. Government bonds responded positively with benchmark 10Y yields retesting previous months low of 7.8%.

Liquidity though remained tight with borrowing under the LAF window remaining above Rs 1 lakh crore mark. With advance taxes due next month and the government keeping very high cash balances in its effort to tighten expenditure control, liquidity is expected to tighten further in March. As a result, the spike in short-term rates continued with 3-month bank CD rates hitting 9.50% mark after a gap of nearly 9 months. This is almost a 50 bps increase over the week. Corporate bond spreads also continued to widen with five-year bonds suffering the maximum damage, close to 10 basis points in a week, whereas the government bonds were well bid.

Petroleum companies prices of petrol and diesel prices over the weekend. This should further consolidate the finances of the central government with the reduced subsidy burden. It seems increasingly certain that the government will be able to demonstrate significant improvement in fiscal deficit over the next six months. While initially it may cause a small uptick in inflation, it will certainly bring about structural improvement in the country's financial health. Simultaneously, the government’s resolve to maintain a tight leash on expenditure, while initially slowing down growth further, will bring handsome dividend over long term.

Overall macro trends, moderating inflation, fiscal consolidation and immediate imperative of reviving investment climate are highly supportive of interest rate markets. Probability of an inter-meeting rate cut by RBI soon after the budget announcement remain high, in case the government meets its fiscal deficit targets. Short term rates may remain under pressure until March but it would be good time to build a high accrual portfolio for the remainder of the year.

---------------------------------------------------------

The author is executive director & CIO - fixed income at Pramerica Asset Managers