Mkts to look at RBI meet, inflation, IIP data for cues

Dalal Street is likely to see volatile trade this week and participants are likely to look for guidance to several events to determine their course of action, including the release of index of industrial production data, August inflation and the RBI's policy meet.

What steps the central bank does or does not take will determine the direction of the market in the near-term and perhaps over the medium-term as well, experts said.

"This week will be crucial and trading would not be easy as volatility will remain elevated, while uncertainty will prevail over macro-economic conditions," brokerage firm India Infoline said in a research note.

From the global perspective, all eyes will be on the US, where the Congress will discuss President Obama's proposed new stimulus package, the report said.

The eurozone will also continue to be in the spotlight amid the ongoing political bickering over the Greek bailout, it added.

"Short and medium-term trend is bearish and all eyes are now on the RBI's monetary policy on September 16. Long-term trend will be influenced by the policy outcome, till then, Nifty is likely to trade with a downward bias in the range of 5,100-4,950," Bonanza Portfolio Senior Research Analyst Shanu Goel said.

Over the week, the BSE benchmark Sensex rose by 0.27% to settle at 16,866.97, despite a heavy sell-off on Friday as US President Barack Obama's move to provide a $447 billion jobs package financed through higher taxes led to concerns that it may get stuck in political wrangling.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also failed to give any indications of a new stimulus package during his speech last week, even as the world's biggest economy has started showing signs of slipping into another recession.

Analysts said that a fall in global markets on Friday served as a reminder that all is still not well, amid concerns about faltering growth in the developed world.

Market participants are favouring light positions ahead of key events like the RBI policy meet and IIP numbers.

The monetary policy is close to its peak and experts feel that the apex bank will go for another 25 basis points rate hike.

At present, the markets are projecting a 0.25% rate hike, marketmen said. But a higher than 0.25% hike may dampen the market sentiment, they feared.