Monsoon enters weak phase in most parts

The southwest monsoon, which has had a stupendous run so far in 2016, has entered a weak phase for the first time since it gathered steam in July over most parts of the country. Eastern, northeastern India and parts of central India have been spared from this lull, which might continue till the end of August. The average daily monsoon over India in August hovers between 9.5- 7.7 millimeters, but since the last few days this has fallen to around 5-6 millimeters with little chance of recovering till last week of August.

Meteorologists said the slump could push the cumulative monsoon into the negative zone for the first time. However, it is unlikely to have any tangible impact on standing kharif crops and, in fact, a little bit of sunshine might help in faster germination and good plant growth. The monsoon has so far this season, June 1 to August 16, been just normal at 599.4 mm. The best performers have been north-west and central India, where the rains have been 8 per cent and 10 per cent above normal, respectively.

A negative Indian Ocean Diapole and unsupportive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) are being talked about as the likely reasons for the southwest monsoon entering into a weak phase. Both these weather phenomena play a dominant role when the El Nino enters a neutral phase

"The monsoon has entered a weak phase since the last 1-2 days over most parts of the country, except the northeastern and eastern India and it will now revive around the end of August," D S Pai, deputy director general-climatology at IMD, told Business Standard. He said the monsoon from here onwards be below normal but it won't have any impact on standing kharif crop as sowing is almost over in most parts. "In fact, a little bit of sunshine is good for the crops," Pai said.

Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at private weather forecasting agency Skymet, said the monsoon would in the next fortnight be largely confined over east and north-east India and eastern part of central India which would wipe off the surplus and push the cumulative rainfall into deficit.

"We don't see any big pick up in rains till August and IMD's forecast of August rains being 104 per cent of long period average (LPA) and ours being 108 per cent of LPA seems to be in danger as of now," Palawat said.

The LPA for August is around 261 millimeters.

Skymet might review its full-year forecast of rains around August 23, from 105 per cent of LPA. The forecast was made in April this year and was with a model error of plus or minus four per cent.