"We estimate output at 2.25 million tonnes this season as against 1.77 mt the previous year," said Dorab Mistry, director, Godrej International, a global personality in the edible oil industry.
The commodity is 13 per cent of India's overall edible oil consumption. The higher output would partly compensate the loss in groundnut oil production. Farmers diverted the groundnut area to other crops due to the scarcity of rain at the beginning of the monsoon season last year. Consequently, groundnut oil availability is likely to decline by 60 per cent, according to Mistry, to 160,000 tonnes this year as against 400,000 tonnes last year.
Date compiled by the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) showed the total area under rape/mustard seed at 6.45 million hectares (ha) as on January 18 this year, as compared to the revised estimates of the government at 6.58 m ha in the rabi season last year. Despite this marginal decline in sowing, the overall output is estimated at 7.11 mt as compared to 5.88 mt in the same season last year. For, it appears, climatic conditions were favourable. While the late season monsoon rain helped with adequate moisture in the field for sowing, unseasonal rainfall in the crop maturing period boosted mustard seed's growth. SEA data show overall yield of rape/mustard seed is set to rise to 1,103 kg a ha this year as compared to 893 kg in the previous season.
According to Mistry, the late arrival of the monsoon affected production of groundnut and cottonseed. Fortunately, it saved the soybean crop. As usually happens, the weak summer rainfall was compensated with good winter rain. India is going to harvest one of its biggest rapeseed crops in memory.
Higher mustard oil output, however, is unlikely to reduce India's dependence on oil import. Of around 16.5 mt of India consumption of edible oil, imports are 57 per cent.
India's imports of edible and non-edible oils during the oil year of November 2012 to October 2013 will also break all records, said Mistry.
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