Nifty likely to face resistance above 5,925

The markets reversed their three-week losing streak, thanks to an extra-ordinary rally in the last two trading days of the week. A rally on account of short-covering owing to derivatives expiry on Thursday, followed by a stronger surge on Friday after the government approved the Rangarajan committee report on gas pricing formula, saw the bears run for cover.

The Sensex, which had tumbled to a low of 18,467 at the start of the week, recovered gradually and then zoomed to a high of 19,433. The BSE benchmark index eventually ended the week with a gain of 3.3 per cent (622 points) at 19,396.

Index heavyweight Reliance was the top gainer among the Sensex 30 stocks, up 8.6 per cent at Rs 862. Gail India also soared nearly 8 per cent to Rs 313. ONGC, TCS, Hindalco, Jindal Steel, HDFC, and Sun Pharma rallied 6-7 per cent each. On the other hand, Tata Motors and SBI slipped around 2 per cent each to Rs 281 and Rs 1,954, respectively. Maruti and Hindustan Unilever were down a per cent each.

Since we are at the start of the month and the quarter, we shall look at the broader picture for the markets.

According to the monthly Fibonacci charts, the Sensex is likely to move in a broad range of 18,530-20,260. In the interim, the BSE index can seek support around 18,865-18,700, whereas face resistance around 19,925-20,090.

According to the quarterly charts, the BSE index can scale to 20,275-20,820 on the higher side in the next three months, whereas on the downside the index can slide to 18,520-17,970. Next week, the Sensex is likely to seek support around 19,185-18,915-18,800, while face resistance around 19,765-19,880-19,995.

The NSE Nifty has bounced back sharply above its short-term (20-day) and long-term (200-day) moving averages following Friday's stupendous rally. The index ended with a gain of 3.1 per cent (175 points) at 5,842.

Key momentum oscillators such as the 14-day Relative Strength Index and Stochastic Slow on the daily charts have turned bullish, and indicate continuation of the up move for now. On the upside, the NSE index is likely to target 5,925-odd levels.

However, the momentum oscillators on the weekly charts continue to remain in favour of the bears. Hence, one needs to be wary of resistance at higher levels. The Nifty needs to sustain above 5,900-odd levels for a sustained up move.

On the flip side, sustained trade below 5,820-odd levels can weaken the Nifty. The index can, then, drop back to 5,640-odd levels. To sum it up - the Nifty can rally to 5,925-odd levels. Sustained trade above 5,900 would lead for further gains. On the other hand, sustained trade below 5,820, can trigger a fall to 5,640-odd levels.