Nifty may move in 4,640-4,900 band

In a week marked by high volatility, markets corrected sharply only to bounce back with greater strength. Last week, it was mentioned that the markets might stage a July-like recovery amid high volatility. Although, markets have bounced back sharply, chances of a full recovery look remote currently. Going forward, one needs to watch the 15,530-15,640 zone for the Sensex as crucial for the current upmove to remain intact. As and when it comes below this level, the index is likely to test its long-term support of 14,800.

The BSE benchmark index tumbled to a low of 15,331 at the start of the week. Thereafter, the index rallied to a high of 16,284 — a sharp recovery of 953 points. It finally ended the week with a gain of 262 points at 16,158.

Among the index stocks, Bharti Airtel zoomed 9.5 per cent to Rs 320, and Jaiprakash Associates soared 8.5 per cent to Rs 228. ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti and Sterlite were the other major gainers. On the other hand, Tata Power slipped over 5 per cent to Rs 1,343. ACC, Hindustan Unilever, ITC and Hero Honda were the other prominent losers.

The near-term support and resistance for the index is at 15,900 and 16,500, respectively. Positive news flow on the disinvestment and economic front is likely to act as boosters. However, the global cues will continue to have a dominant effect on markets in the short term. The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 298 points, from a low of 4,539, the index surged to a high of 4,836, before settling with a gain of 84 points at 4,796.

The Nifty is likely to find considerable support around 4,640 and resistance around 4,900. Technically, the short-term trend is still bearish as the index hovers below its short-term (20-day) and mid-term (50-day) moving averages which are currently at 4,885 and 4,928, respectively.

The Nifty’s low of 4,539 last week seems to be a perfect support on the monthly and yearly charts. Hence, the probability of the index breaking slipping this level may become slim once the index firms up above the 4,900 level. 4,525 is the crucial support for the Nifty on the monthly and yearly chart, after which the index may drop to the 3,900 level.