Oilseeds output to rise 15% on more sowing

However, vegetable oil imports also slated to rise; trade stresses need to raise yields.

Better sub-soil moisture due to good monsoon rainfall, coupled with an upsurge in sown area, are likely to yield 15-18 per cent higher oilseed output during the 2010-11 oil year (November-October).

Farmers, traders and importers Business Standard spoke to forecast total output at 23.2-24.3 million tonnes during the ensuing marketing year (MY), as against 20.51 mt in the previous year.

Of which, the contribution of kharif oilseed is estimated to rise to around 63 per cent, with an estimated output at 14.2 mt, from 59 per cent with 12.28 mt in the previous year.

The deficit in sown area due to shortage of monsoon rain in the beginning of the season was recovered towards the end, through late sowing. As a result, the cultivation not only recovered but rose a marginal 0.32 per cent, at 17.5 million ha (as on October 10), as compared to 17.4 mha sown last year.

Revising his earlier estimates upwards, especially in groundnut production from 3.9 mt to 4.4 mt and soybean output marginally downwards from 950,000 tonnes to 920,000-950,000 tonnes, Gobindbhai Patel, an influential edible oil analyst and industry veteran, said: “Barring the initial blip, the monsoon remained favourable throughout the kharif season. Late rainfall and its eventually even distribution through the country prompted us to revise the overall production estimate upwards.”

Farmers expanded sowing area this year due to the prevalence of high domestic prices of soybean, sunflower and groundnut. However, rapeseed planting during the rabi season could face stiff competition from wheat.

Oilseed availability for crushing in 2010-11 is also likely to be higher than the previous year. About 70-80 per cent of total oilseed output in the country is crushed for oil; the balance goes for food, feed and seed use. Therefore, edible oil output is forecast to increase by 13 per cent, to seven mt in 2010-11 from last year’s 6.2 mt.

‘Output won’t do’
Emphasising the need of raising output, Satyanarayan Agarwal, chairman of the apex edible oil trade body, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry & Trade, said, “A mere 10 per cent rise in edible oil output will not do for India to achieve self-sustenance. We require another green revolution through high yielding hybrid, possibly genetically modified, seed to achieve sufficiency.”
 

RAIN GAIN BALANCE SHEET (MILLION TONNES)
Particulars	2009-10	2010-11*

Particulars 2009-10 2010-11* Kharif  Rabi   Groundnut 3.204.4-4.5Groundnut 1.601.80-1.90 Soybean8.209.2-9.5Rapeseed5.506.00-6.50 Sunflower 0.300.12-0.15Sunflower 0.650.65-0.70 Sesameseed 0.420.25-0.30Sesameseed 0.280.32-0.34 Nigerseed0.080.08-0.08Safflowerseed0.200.20-0.21 Rapeseed0.080.14-0.15    Total12.2814.19-14.68Total8.238.97-9.65 * Estimate

India imports nearly 55 per cent of its annual vegetable oil requirement of  15.7 mt from Argentina, Indonesia and Malaysia.

“Going by the current climatic scenario, we are positive for both kharif and rabi seasons. Higher seed output will certainly reduce our dependence on imports,” said Sushil Goenka, president of the Solvent Extractors’ Association.

According to Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International: “India’s imports would increase, despite higher domestic output on increased seed output this season. Edible oil import is likely to touch 9.3 mt during 2010-11, largely due to higher per capita consumption and population growth, with palm oil leading  among all other edible oils imported.”

Mistry urged the government to review the import duty and bring the tariff (unchanged since September 2005, despite prices having almost doubled since) in line with market prices.