Profit booking seen next week

The Nifty closed around 4,800 on Friday on short-covering by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and strong global cues. However, the trading pattern on the F&O segment suggests that the index may face strong resistance above the 4,800 level. Technically, the Nifty has to cross its Friday high of 4,835 to keep its bullish momentum. If the index slips below its Friday low of 4,755, it may revisit the recent low next week. The SGX Nifty (November futures) closed at 4,767 as against its Friday close of 4,797 indicating weak opening on Monday.

The market is expected to witness profit-booking on Monday as traders were seen selling the 4,800 and 4,900 strike calls on expectation of a sharp correction. Interestingly, traders were buying the 4,600 and 4,700 put options despite the index staying above 4,800 on Friday. The 4,600 put added an open interest (OI) of almost 1 million shares, while the 4,700 put added 0.85 million shares mostly through buy-side trade.

Traders booked profit in the 4,700 call as OI in this call declined by 289,000 shares mostly through sell-side trade. The 4,800 and 4,900 call options together added 1.1 million shares in OI mostly through sell-side trades, indicating strong resistance above the 4,800 level. The 5,000 call witnessed a change of hands as it added an OI of 37,650 shares despite a trading volume of 5.1 million shares.

The Nifty November futures closed at a discount of 6 points to the spot and shed 631,950 shares in OI indicating fresh shorts build-up. The intraday trading pattern in the Nifty futures suggests that the day traders were covering their long positions when the Nifty started trading below the 4,800 level.

Technically, the main indices are also trading below their previous major highs of 16,360/4,854 for the Sensex and the Nifty. This implies that they are still facing a downtrend despite the smart recovery seen in the last three sessions. With the main indices trading near some important resistances, the coming week will be crucial as the market is likely to clarify its intentions, says a technical analyst at HDFC Securities.