Resistance likely around 6,035

The Nifty April futures closed above 5,900 in a well-balanced market where buyers and sellers were facilitating trade at a mutually-agreeable price. However, after a gap-up opening, the April futures closed in a Doji pattern on account of profit-booking at higher levels and support at the lower. A Doji pattern is formed when the opening price is the same or very close to the closing price. Also, after a strong up-day, it signals a potential change in direction, the start of a new phase of the up-trend.

The trading formation in the Nifty April futures indicates 82-85 per cent volume and the TPOs in value area and initial balance range (5,885-5,915), mostly through a buy-side bias or change of hands. This means, participants covered some short-position and also build-up long-positions in that range. The weekly market picture chart shows strong consolidation in the value area (5,750-5,880) and a clear buy signal as TPOs above the PoC (5,900-5,905) were 10 per cent compared to 90 per cent in the lower portion of the PoC.

The April futures is likely to see strong consolidation around 5,815-5,880 and an upside at around 5,931. On the weekly market picture chart, based on four trading sessions (market is closed on Friday), the April futures is poised to cross the 6,000-level early next week. Resistance is expected to come around 6,035, and if the index closed above this level, it could move around 6,101. The resistance levels for the spot Nifty are seen at 5,912-6,000-6,072.

The key drivers are expected to be index heavyweights such as State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, and Reliance Industries. These stocks futures closed the day on a bullish note and also above the value area, suggesting strong volume-based buying from other participants. The April futures of the State Bank of India is expected to move up around 2,912, with a price-based support in the range of 2,810-2,845. ICICI Bank is also expected to move up around Rs 1,164 and to get support at Rs 1,052. Reliance Industries may move up around Rs 1,074 and get support at Rs 1,002.

The Nifty April futures closed at a 18-point premium to spot and saw unwind of over two million shares in the open interest over intraday build-up levels, indicating short covering from bears.