Rising rupee may dampen IT outlook

The IT index ended down 2.5% at 4,430. Earlier in the day, the index touched a low of 4,406.

Among the IT stocks, MphasiS tumbled 6% to Rs 627.

IT major, Wipro slumped 4.2% to Rs 573. TCS and Infosys shed around 3% each to Rs 593 and Rs 2,252, respectively.

Rolta India, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Patni Computers and Financial Technologies were down 1-3% each.

However, Oracle Financial Services gained 3% at Rs 1,867. Moser Baer added 1.3% to Rs 90.
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(Updated at 1106 hrs)

The rising rupee may be a dampener on IT stocks. The rupee has touched a fresh 12-month high today at 46.83/ $.

Analysts had indicated revenue guidance upgrades last week given improving outlook. Infosys results, due October 10, 2009, should show a 4.5% uptick over last quarter guidance, as per a Kotak Institutional Tech report. Wipro, should see 3% growth against a guideline of 0.2-2%.

The rupee rise could pinch going ahead based on the hedging positions. The current rise in the $ against other global currencies could hurt $ revenues in the near term for non $ billings. TCS and Tech Mahindra have high non $ denominated billings, as per an IDFC-SSKI report..
 

IT companies hedge position at the end of Jun’09

 

Hedge Position ($m)

 

Forwards

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Total

Sep 09 (Estd) revenue

Hedge as a % of Revenue (%)

Infosys4131876001,14652 TCS9651,9822,9471,520194 Wipro8403601,2001,062113 HCL Tech8100810619131 Tech Mahindra7000700232301 Patni3200320167191 Note:GBP and EURO hedge converted at Jun'09 spot rate; *TechM has USD/GBP forward of 290m at 1.83 and INR/USD forward cover for US$700m Source: IDFC SSKI report

The BSE IT index is down 1.7% at 4,470, despite the Sensex rising 0.6%.

IT major Infosys is down nearly 3% at Rs 2,244. The counter has seen trades of around 59,800 shares so far on the BSE. TCS too has declined nearly 3% to Rs 594 on a volume of around 424,400 shares. Wipro has dropped 2.3% to Rs 585.

However, as per an IDFC SSKI report, TCS, Tech Mahindra and Patni could benefit in the near term from a strengthening rupee because of significant hedges based on end-Jun 09 data.

Tech Mahindra is down nearly 2% at Rs 917, and Patni Computers is unchanged at Rs 433. Rolta has slipped over 1% to Rs 199.

Aptech and Financial Technologies, however, have bucked the trend and are up 2% and 1% each at Rs 269 and Rs 1,313, respectively.