US jobs data to push gold past $1,300/oz

Markets await Fed's statement on Monday, dollar set to weaken

Gold is likely to witness a short sharp rally on a weak dollar over expectations of an earlier-than-anticipated interest rate hike by the US Fed.

Analysts forecast gold would hit $1,300 an oz as early as next week following US Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s statement scheduled on Monday on the next round of interest rate hikes.

This will translate into a gold price of Rs 30,000 per 10 gm in India.

Standard gold was volatile last week in Zaveri Bazaar on global trends and ended flat at Rs 28,655. On Friday, the metal nosedived in early trade but later regained nearly three per cent.

“Weaker-than-expected US payroll data pushed up expectations of an interest rate hike. We see the next support level for gold at $1,300 as early as next week,” said Gnanasekhar Thiagarajan, director, Commtrendz.

Data on Friday showed US employers added only 38,000 jobs in May, the slowest in six years and much below analysts’ expectations of 160,000. US earnings growth, too,  remained weak, rising 0.2 per cent in May, down from 0.4 per cent in April.

The dollar plummeted 1.25 per cent against the euro to 0.8855, its lowest since mid-May.

Gold for delivery in August on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) opened the week at Rs 28,753 and slipped to Rs 28,640. It rallied sharply towards the weekly high of Rs 29,420 before settling finally at Rs 29,387, 1.89 per cent higher than the previous week’s close.

“We expect gold prices to find resistance at Rs 29,900-30,000 next week. Trading consistently above Rs 30,000 will lead to the strong resistance at Rs 30,400, and finally to the major resistance at Rs 30,900,” said Anuj Gupta, assistant vice-president, technical research, Angel Commodities Broking.

Physical buyers were absent due to a lack of buying reasons. Gold is selling at a discount of $10 per 10 gm in India.

“There is a lull in sales for the past few weeks,” said Kumar Jain, director, Umedmal Tilokichand Zaveri, a jewellery retailer.

Silver is likely to follow gold with a lag of a month or two. According to Thiagarajan, silver has a greater potential upside than gold.

Silver for delivery in July on the MCX opened the week at Rs 38,501 a kg and hit a low of Rs 38,270 before bouncing back to Rs 39,291. This week, silver closed at Rs 39,079, 0.55 per cent higher than the previous week’s close.