Vegetable oil output to remain marginally up on favourable climate

Apex industry body's data shows India's oilseed output at 25.6 mn tonnes this year as against 26 mn tonnes in previous year

Despite a decline in oilseed output, vegetable oil availability from domestic sources is likely to remain marginally higher this oil year (November 2012-October 2013).

Data compiled by the apex industry body, Central Organisation for Oil Industry & Trade (COOIT), showed India's oilseed output at 25.6 million tonnes (mt) this year as against 26 mt in the previous year.

The decline in output, due to delayed rainfall during the kharif season is expected to partly compensate through an estimated rise in rabi output. COOIT forecast rabi oilseed output at 9.8 mt this year compared to 8.8 mt in the corresponding season last year.

Favourable climatic conditions in the rabi season have increased oil recovery, especially from rape/mustard seed to an average of 42 per cent this year from 38 per cent in previous years. Consequently, oil availability from domestic sources could go up marginally to 8.2 mt this year from 8.15 mt in previous years, COOIT data showed.

Unfortunately, higher availability from domestic sources would hardly impact imports, due to continuous rise in consumption. Since, edible oil is quoted cheaper due to sustained pressure through imports, consumption has been continuously rising in India. Consequently, India's import of veg oil is expected to rise 500,000-700,000 tonnes this year to set a new record at 10.7-10.9 mt, as against 10.19 mt in the previous year.

Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International, has forecast India's per capita consumption of edible oil to increase to 13.92 kg this year as against 13.36 kg last year. Mistry attributed sustained lower prices for the continuous rise in per capita consumption in India.

According to him, India's total veg oil consumption could rise to 17.55 mt this year from 16.58 mt last year.