Reliance Industries: CLSA ups target by 33 percent, retains 'buy'

Describing Reliance Industries (RIL) stock as the best growth in global large oils at discounted valuation, global brokerage CLSA Tuesday maintained "buy" on the stock, raising its target price to Rs.1,250, which is 33 percent higher than current levels.

"Reiterate our double bagger BUY with target of Rs.1,250 a share, ahead of key triggers in 2015," CLSA said in a report.

It cited the launch of the $11bn 4G telecom service, clarity on gas price premium for deepwater discoveries and start of key projects in RIL's ongoing $14 billion downstream expansion, all slated in 2015, as the key triggers.

"These projects should drive a near doubling in Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) and makes Reliance the strongest two-year earnings growth story in global large cap oil space," the report said.

"However,the stock is at a big discount to global peers as well as its own historical multiples," it added.

Saying several of RIL's important projects will come to fruition during 2015 like 4G telecom, the petcoke gasification plant, and big expansion of its paraxylene capacity, CLSA said: "Reliance's two year Ebitda as well as net profit growth is the best amongst the global large cap oil stocks."

Continued weakness in crude price may prove to be a challenge for RIL's shale gas business in 2015 but CLSA expects Reliance Retail to further strengthen its positioning, on the day the sensitive index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (Sensex) crashed on account of oil prices sinking to fresh lows as worries over a global supply glut intensified.

The Indian basket of crude oils traded Monday at $51.53 a barrel.

The government announced the new price for normal categories of gas at $5.61 per unit. For all new discoveries in ultra-deep-water areas (beyond 1,500 metres), deep-water areas (beyond 1,000 metres) and the high pressure-high-temperature areas, it said that a premium will be given, details of which are being worked out.

Reliance Industries will not immediately be able to avail the new price as it remains locked in an arbitration with the government over alleged shortfall in production from its Krishna-Godavari basin fields.

When the matter is resolved, the company is expected to benefit the most as most of its ongoing explorations are in the deep-water areas of the Bay of Bengal.