A new strain

How to control the economic impact of bird flu

The outbreak of a new strain of avian influenza (bird flu), H7N9, in China may not yet have posed any threat to poultry, the food chain or to human health in India, but the possibility of its transmission to China's neighbours is not being ruled out. India's Northeast, which has seen quite a few outbursts of bird flu in the past, seems particularly vulnerable. The risk has heightened further, thanks to the detection of the H7N9 virus in pigeons in China, since there is no way of preventing them from flying across the border. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) says poultry farmers, livestock producers, transporters, market workers and consumers should implement proper bio-security and hygiene measures as a first and most effective way to protect the food chain against this virus. The World Health Organisation, too, has stated that the disease is of concern since most humans infected with the H7N9 virus have become severely ill. The Chinese authorities have this time confirmed diagnosing H7N9 infection in human beings, rather than hiding the truth as they have often done in the past regarding diseases of international concern. The country's media has reported more than 100 cases and nearly a score of deaths.

That said, knowledge about the precise nature, scope, causes and effects of the H7N9 subgroup of the influenza virus is severely limited. This virus is believed to be the outcome of a re-assortment of genes of different influenza strains. A recent paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine maintains that this re-assortment occurred in birds and not in human beings or other mammals - which may reduce potential risks. What is worrying, however, is that some other researchers have claimed that the H7N9 virus may have already mutated into more new forms, some of which may be able to spread between mammals to trigger a human pandemic. Equally scary is the assertion by the FAO - endorsed also by Chinese officials - that unlike the normal bird flu virus H5N1, the new strain is harder to detect in poultry. This is because it does not cause mortality or produce other noticeable symptoms in the initial stages. This means that carriers of this virus may pass it on to numerous others before being diagnosed and treated.

India's worry is also about the virus' potential peril for the rapidly growing poultry sector, estimated conservatively at over Rs 50,000 crore. Going by past experience, the occurrence of bird flu even in one part of the country tends to create widespread misgivings about the consumption of poultry products from everywhere, causing sales of poultry products, even eggs, to drop. Worse, it prompts countries to ban imports from India. The solution to this problem lies in putting in place a policy, similar to that in China and Malaysia, of dividing the country into different poultry health zones - so that even if one particular zone is affected by bird flu, normal business, including exports, can continue from other zones. The poultry industry has long pressed for such a policy without any response from the government. That must change immediately.