Another step forward

Barack Obama's Republic Day trip will be significant

The announcement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Twitter, that he had invited United States President Barack Obama to be the chief guest of the government at India's next Republic Day is in many ways a notable landmark. Both Mr Modi and Mr Obama, in his public acceptance of the invitation, underlined the fact that no American president has ever been chief guest. Russians (or Soviets) have come three times; the French four times; for that matter, the Pakistanis have come twice - and even the Chinese, in the 1950s. The absence of an American president on that list is a reminder of the deep mistrust that existed for decades between New Delhi and Washington. Mr Obama's arrival at Mr Modi's invitation is a reminder that there is now a strong bipartisan consensus to end that mistrust.

By and large, the prime minister's recent visit to the United States - while an impressive show of strength for Indian-Americans and a reminder to the powers that be in Washington that governance in New Delhi was now re-energised - is yet to show major concrete results in terms of moving the partnership between the two countries forward. Indeed little irritants that should have been smoothed over - such as over India's intellectual property rights regime - seemed to acquire greater virulence afterwards. But what may have turned the corner are the Indian government's recent deal with the United States to break the impasse over the Doha Development Round of the World Trade Organization and last week's United States immigration reforms that are likely to help Indian information technology firms.

Of course, Mr Obama is approaching the end of his second term in office. He is unpopular at home, with a low approval rating - and the recent midterm elections underlined his unpopularity, with his party losing control of the upper house of the United States Congress. He is, thus, something of a lame-duck president. But it is also worth noting that many such lame ducks have been instrumental in framing policy towards India - because it is often relatively uncontroversial at home, and provides an easy win. The beginning of Ronald Reagan's term saw troubled relations with India; but towards the end, he had repaired relations and cleared aircraft engine and supercomputer sales. Bill Clinton made a heady visit to India in 2000, with less than a year to go in office, and reset relations thrown off balance by the 1998 nuclear tests. And George W Bush pushed through the nuclear deal at the end of his second term, too. It may not be too much to expect if Mr Obama, wearied by the frustrations he faces in other policy domains, turns to this one just as his predecessors did.

Finally, a question will have to be asked. At the beginning of his tenure, Mr Modi seemed much more comfortable with China and Japan, as economic and political interlocutors. Are signs of a change in this attitude visible - perhaps given China's unwillingness to engage in a detente, and Japan's sudden political-economic crisis?