Conversations with friends

If the mood in the BJP before Pulwama was not particularly cheerful, now party leaders say all losses have been offset

A chance meeting with a friend in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led to valuable insights into what the party is thinking and how it is preparing for the election now that the war with Pakistan has been won and is (more or less) over, notwithstanding Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s assertion that “ek ek ko maroonga; ghar mein ghus ke maroonga” a la George Bush (“we’ll smoke them out”).

The mood in the BJP before Pulwama was not particularly cheerful. The party had lost assembly elections and more important, incumbent governments. True, the Congress victory was wafer thin (except in Chhattisgarh), but two governments had just slipped away from BJP hands. At several fora, including in Parliament lobbies, junior ministers were spotted muttering: “haarenge, haarenge” (we’re going to lose) and even trusted alliance partners could be heard mocking the idea of a ‘new’ India outlined in the government-scripted President’s address.

Worse, an internal survey by a section of the BJP had thrown up extremely dismaying conclusions: The BJP would get around 164 seats out of 545, the Congress would end up at around 120 and the party would face an existential crisis. The calculation was that the BJP would have to compromise by going easy on Jaganmohan Reddy of the YSR Congress, Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal (offering a Padma Shri to his sister Gita Mehta was part of that plan; she turned it down) and K Chandrashekar Rao of the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS). Around 45 seats netted from the eventual support of these regional parties would come to the BJP’s aid. Overall, it wasn’t looking too good.

In moments of candour, Modi is said to have told colleagues: “Mujhe ishwariya vardaan mila hua hai” (I am blessed by His grace). The fact that Pulwama happened was one such divine intervention, party leaders say. Now, they say, the situation has been completely reversed. The country believes it is in safe hands, losses and deaths have been avenged and if necessary, India can do it again. 

Armed with this discourse, vastly relieved party workers are glossing over what are clear and structural weaknesses: The party’s loss of credibility in Delhi (seven Lok Sabha seats) for instance or its inability to expand the party’s appeal in both Andhra Pradesh and Telangana (42 seats together). In the Telangana assembly election, for instance, the BJP’s strength came down from five seats to one. In compromising with Naveen Patnaik, it would have had to put the brakes on its own growth in Odisha, a state which it believes is ripe for the picking. It would have done so, but in bad grace.

Now, all that has changed. With serene confidence, leaders say all losses have been offset. “I can’t put a figure to the seats BJP will get because I don’t know where the number will stop”, stated one, matter of fact, without a trace of bravado.

So, if the BJP is so sure it is return to power, what are the changes we should expect to see?

The answers were interesting. If in the last round of government formation it was Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s influence that was palpable and visible, this time, it will be Amit Shah whose voice will count the most in deciding who should be minister. “Some ministers who are judged to have performed well will be repeated. You will most certainly find Piyush Goyal in the government. But there will be a large number of new faces — people you haven’t even heard of”, my friend said. The model will be the appointments in Haryana and Maharashtra: M L Khattar hadn’t ever been an MLA and he was made chief minister of Haryana; and Devendra Fadnavis was not the first name that came to mind in BJP politics in Maharashtra but he was given the top job in the state. In other words, people who will take a long, long time to become political stalwarts (and threats).

What about existing political stalwarts? Party President Amit Shah might find himself in government and two names are being considered as his replacement: Roads minister Nitin Gadkari; and former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. My friend was quick to introduce the inevitable caveat: that in this regime, barring two people, nobody really knows anything. 

But what about the problems India was facing: farm distress, lack of jobs, artificial and uneven growth? His response was an evocative gesture. He shrugged.