Gold may touch $2,000 by Dec

Continues to enjoy alternative currency status, as monetary interventions fail to inspire confidence.

The world’s largest economy has been downgraded, the euro zone is close to imploding, the USA’s backdoor stimulus package has been thumbed-down and risk aversion has triggered a massive sell-off across asset classes. Even as central bankers debate on a viable alternative to the dollar, still the world’s reserve currency, it is an understatement to say the future of gold looks bright

Given that the advanced economies are dangerously close to recession, the future of gold looks reasonably stable, say commodity analysts. Despite the relatively high levels of investment in commodities, most have showed a downward trend since the start of this year.

Commodities are very good indicators of economic health, as they are consumed for various industrial purposes. Even silver, a precious metal, has industrial uses. With the Purchasing Managers Index of most countries showing a contraction, industrial activity is expected to weaken in the coming months.

This puts the spotlight back on gold. While most observers refer to the current run-up in prices to a speculative build-up, commodity analysts say till the world finds a viable alternative reserve currency, gold will continue to rise. Explains Hitesh Jain, research analyst at IndiaInfoline: “Gold is not in bubble zone. In fact, there have been corrections. It should not be viewed as a commodity, as it’s an alternative currency. Even if one looks at the previous sell-off in commodities (in 2008-09), the fall in gold was not so drastic.”

Even in the midst of the current sell-off, gold has not fallen below $1,700 for an ounce (31.28 gm). Analysts soon see prices moving to $1,800 levels and before the calendar year is over, many even predict the yellow metal to touch $2,000/ounce.

While the precious metal may not be able to evade a large-scale liquidation in positions over the short term, the long-term view on gold remains intact. What makes this belief even stronger is the price performance of the metal over the past 10 years. For a decade, gold has given positive returns, year-on-year. From the look of it, this trend may continue till the world comes out of its present crisis.