Letters: IMF's Black Swan Event?

The weekend arrest of the IMF boss is a Black Swan Event, that is, an event that has a very low probability but a very high impact. The term was coined by the economic philosopher and risk specialist Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He has argued that the world can be explained to a substantial extent by such Black Swan Events rather than those events that follow a smooth and symmetric bell curve for the probability of their occurrences. He has also argued that in future such Black Swan Events will increase in number, making the world of finance a fragile sector. The mainstream media rarely pays attention to the success or failure of the IMF in helping nations struggling in balancing their assets and liabilities. However, the news of the arrest of the IMF boss caught the attention of the American media instantly. With this kind of attention from the people of the most important IMF shareholder, perhaps the institution will be better scrutinised about its mission and actions. This single event can make massive changes in the institution, just the way Black Swan Events should.

Chandrashekhar G Ranade, Washington D C

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