Mr Modi's bumpy road

Task for the BJP's nominee is not that easy

The fact that Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has become a member of the Bharatiya Janata Party's central decision-making body, the BJP parliamentary board, is considered yet another indication that Mr Modi's party is lining up behind its best-known state leader in the run-up to the general elections scheduled for 2014. Indeed, Mr Modi's growing power is underlined not so much by his presence as the only state leader in the BJP's highest council, but also in that his trusted aide, the controversial former Gujarat home minister Amit Shah - out on bail for murder - has been made a party general secretary. The BJP clearly intends to ignore this baggage, reflecting the Delhi leadership's unwillingness to antagonise Mr Modi.

There is little doubt that in so elevating this particular chief minister, the party is only responding to its energised base, and to the rapturous reception that Mr Modi has received in several fora of late in Delhi - as diverse as the India Today Conclave, Google's Big Tent, and the Shri Ram College of Commerce. Yet the party and Mr Modi must know that important caveats exist. In trying to push India's parliamentary system into a pseudo-presidential contest between Mr Modi and a Congress nominee to be decided - perhaps Rahul Gandhi, perhaps someone he picks - there are common pitfalls. Most obviously, challengers in presidential systems do well early in their campaigns, when all they have to do is "appear presidential". Mr Modi has managed that well. However, challengers face their first big hurdle when not their style but their words - their concrete political platforms - are analysed. Mr Modi, in his speeches, has been accused of concentrating more on buzzwords than on how he would solve India's problems. His task, if the BJP intends to completely rework Indian politics, is to present a complete and comprehensive policy alternative, one that credibly overcomes his party's xenophobic, swadeshi instincts. He may wish to run away from questions about riots towards questions of governance. That strategy will not be successful as long as he is untested on public discussions of policy.

The stakes are high. Mr Modi cannot merely appear better than the Congress - something that is not, after all, that hard to pull off given this government's performance over the past few years. The Congress' baseline is higher than the BJP's, as it is competitive in more places; in addition, it has presided over an expansion of entitlement and an increase in rural wages that might well ensure rural Indians continue to vote for it in spite of urban disenchantment. It will also find it easier to attract allies than a Modi-run BJP. In other words, the BJP will have to substantially increase its current Lok Sabha seats tally. It will have to sweep areas where it is strong, and become competitive in areas where it isn't. It can't do that unless Mr Modi changes the nature of the political conversation. Relying on vacuous marketing slogans, on projecting strength, and on a contrast with the tired leaders of the United Progressive Alliance won't be enough.