No tanks this time?

It looks as if any transition in Pakistan will be democratic, after all

Pakistan’s government is under siege. The federal administration, led by the Pakistan Peoples Party, is facing a series of challenges from a motley set of adversaries, and its troubles seem to be about to boil over. Even so, there are signs of hope: the successive crises could be read as showing how both the government and its challenges seem to be evolving towards a more mature manner of dealing with frictions within Pakistan’s delicately balanced establishment. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani declared on Sunday that what mattered was that the democratically-elected National Assembly — in which the PPP-led alliance enjoys a comfortable majority — should complete its term and not be forced out, regardless of the fate of the prime minister or the current government. Negotiations are on with the main opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PML-N, to pass a parliamentary resolution reiterating the country’s commitment to democracy.

Civil-military relations are at their lowest ebb since the restoration of democracy, with the prime minister sacking the defence secretary — seen as close to the army chief -- for telling the country’s supreme court that his ministry had no operational control over military matters. Meanwhile, he accused the army’s top brass of “unconstitutionally” filing affidavits in the court about what is being called “memo-gate” — accusations that Pakistan’s ex-ambassador to the US passed on a memo in which the government promised to rework policy to cut down the army’s influence, in return for US support. The army chief shot back: General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani issued a statement warning of “grievous consequences”. The supreme court is pushing forward not just with the “memo-gate” case, but also an attempt to undo the amnesty promised to senior leaders of the ruling alliance, including President Asif Ali Zardari. The Musharraf-era amnesty, called the National Reconciliation Ordinance, ended hundreds of cases, including some to do with corruption. The court has ensured that many of these have now been re-opened. Meanwhile, the streets have been filled with mammoth rallies, especially those organised by the cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, who appears to wish to position himself as a Hazare-like crusader against a corrupt brand of politics. That this is a more dangerous political position to take in a country with a history of military intervention is obvious.

Intriguingly, this time, all sides might well back down. The government appears to be looking for political concessions to make to the opposition, legal concessions to make to the court, and verbal concessions to make to the army. Mr Gilani is being pressed for a full apology by the army, and has said that the military’s leadership has the government’s “full support”. It increasingly appears as if the army, in spite of its sabre-rattling, is genuinely unwilling to force another period of military rule — if, that is, the government doesn’t provoke it beyond bearing. In this crisis, there are perhaps signs of a maturing of Pakistan’s historically shaky institutions.