Not just adaptation

India's climate mitigation needs fast-tracking

The findings of the Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Cycle (also called Assessment Report, or AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contained a few surprises for India. Although the country accounts for less than 5 per cent of historical greenhouse gas emissions and less than half the global average of per capita emissions, Indian scientists who were part of the IPCC warned the country faced the highest risk from the impact of climate change — from heat waves and cyclones to urban and rural displacement. The impacts are already being felt in melting glaciers in the fragile Himalayas, threatening highland populations, and in last year’s heat wave, which impacted wheat output and indirectly led to milk shortages because of the lower availability of cattle fodder. This trend is true of the developing world in general, which is paying the price of the developed world’s 240 years’ folly of untrammelled industrialisation, a fact that the AR6 report underlines. That explains why the Union minister for environment, forest, and climate change, Bhupender Yadav, largely welcomed the grim findings of the report. Mr Yadav pertinently underlined the need for “rapid climate actions” by the world’s wealthy emitters on the basis of the principles of climate justice and equity, and drew attention to the Prime Minister’s October 2022 call for a global mass movement inducing behavioural change in resource utilisation.

Though such adaptation certainly plays a key role in limiting emissions, mitigation strategies are also vital. Here, the fact is that India is and remains a significant fossil-fuel emitter because it seeks to bring the fruits of development to a population of over one billion people. Though its historical contribution to global emissions is negligible, it is currently the world’s third-largest emitter, principally from the dirtiest source of fossil fuel, coal. The data also suggests the country’s per capita emissions have increased 36 per cent since 2011. The high-decibel action around mitigation — incentivising investment in green hydrogen, an expanding network of natural gas (considered a “clean” fuel), and renewable energy (RE) — amounts to little still. For instance, RE sources account for only about 11 per cent of power generation, though they are a little over 40 per cent of the installed capacity. Investment in green hydrogen will take time to show results and the sizable investment in natural gas remains prey to widely fluctuating prices, since India imports the bulk of its natural gas. Europe’s search for non-Russian gas means that gas prices will remain volatile — they have fallen sharply after last year’s record highs but it is uncertain how long this benign pricing will last. Meanwhile, policy flip-flops have sharply curtailed RE potential. The government’s move to impose steep import duties on solar equipment imports in April last year — principally a response to geopolitical problems with China, the largest producer of such equipment — has slowed capacity additions since solar projects are heavily dependent on import. Sensibly, a stipulation that solar photovoltaic modules can be sourced only from an Approved List of Modules and Manufacturers (ALMM) was recently relaxed for solar projects commissioned by March 24, 2024. It is unclear how much nearer this one-year relaxation will bring India to its net-zero commitment by 2070. In the short run, though, India will remain a climate-change victim.