Oil and Trouble

Obama/oil: The Gulf of Mexico oil debacle hasn’t just created problems for BP – it’s a political slick for US President Barack Obama. BP's deep sea leak forced the president to hold his first press conference in 300 days. Voters disapprove of his handling of the disaster. After messy healthcare and financial reform processes, the fiasco could hamper the Democrats’ legislative ambitions in energy and perhaps beyond.

By a 53-to-43 margin, according to pollster Gallup, Americans think the president has mishandled the crisis. Even some Democrats have been critical. Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana said Obama "has not been as visible as he should" and would "pay a political price for it." And fellow Louisianan James Carville, the Clintons’ political guru, blasted the White House's "lackadaisical" response in an emotional TV interview that has become a minor Internet sensation.

Obama's Q&A before the Washington press corps probably didn't help much. The president admitted he was wrong to assume oil companies were prepared to deal with deepwater disaster when he earlier advocated more drilling. He also conceded that his administration should have been quicker to reform industry regulation. Even daughter Malia, he said, wondered just when her father was going to plug the hole.

Preliminary signs that BP has finally contained the leak may offer some relief. But, plenty of damage has already been done, both to the Gulf and Obama. The president's long-declining approval ratings had been perking up, thanks to the recovering economy and his push for financial reform. Now they're sinking again. Since World War Two, presidents with sub-50 per cent approval ratings - Obama is at 47 per cent - have seen their party lose an average of 36 House seats in midterm elections. The GOP needs 39 to take control of the lower chamber.

The spill has also undercut Democratic efforts to pass an energy bill that would subsidize alternative fuels and create a limited carbon emissions trading system. Obama has suspended deepwater drilling. Republicans – with big backing from the energy lobby - won't even consider passing a bill that doesn't expand such efforts. That demand makes the legislation a non-starter for Democrats.

The disaster isn't Obama's Hurricane Katrina - as Karl Rove recently suggested - but it does create a political and policy hazard that will take time, and presidential capital, to clean up.